- λ home
- 2.50
- λ away
- 1.05
- Σλ total
- 3.55
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.4%
Luzino vs Flota Świnoujście prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Luzino v Flota Świnoujście: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Luzino v Flota Świnoujście are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luzino (home) | 1.66 | 1.31 | 1.19 | 2.60 |
| Flota Świnoujście (away) | 1.38 | 0.82 | 1.07 | 1.21 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.31 × 1.19 ≈ 2.60
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.81 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.69 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.42 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.55 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.50, λaway = 1.05
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Luzino | 66.6% | 66.0% | 66.5% | 66.2% |
| X Draw | 17.7% | 25.0% | 19.6% | 22.7% |
| 2 Flota Świnoujście | 15.7% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 11.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Luzino | 66.2% | 1.51 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -11.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.40 | 4.55 | 22.0% | +3.4% | |
| 2 · Flota Świnoujście | 11.1% | 9.04 | 6.40 | 15.6% | -29.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.9% | 1.12 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -7.5% | |
| X2 | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2.67 | 37.5% | -9.8% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -14.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Luzino | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Flota Świnoujście | 14.3% | 6.98 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.9% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.1% | 7.62 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -12.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -8.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -8.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -14.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.5% | 1.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.1% | 3.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.611 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.053 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Luzino | Flota Świnoujście |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLWL | WLDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Luzino at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Luzino 3rd on 29, Flota Świnoujście 10th on 21.
Form
Luzino, last six: D L L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Kalisz. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.7 conceded.
Sequence for Flota Świnoujście: W L D L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Polonia Środa. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Luzino 2–0 Flota Świnoujście. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Luzino 2.50 · Flota Świnoujście 1.05 · total 3.55. High total: over 2.5 68%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Luzino 2–1 Flota Świnoujście. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Mar 2026Luzino2–0Flota Świnoujście
III Liga Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polonia Środa | 17 | +24 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kluczevia Stargard | 17 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 |  Luzino | 17 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wda Świecie | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Lech Poznań II | 16 | +11 | 27 |
| 6 |  Unia Swarzędz | 17 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 |  Stargard Szczeciński | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 8 |  Bałtyk Koszalin | 16 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Noteć Czarnków | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Flota Świnoujście | 17 | -12 | 21 |
| 11 |  Kalisz | 16 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Elana Toruń | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Gedania Gdansk | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 |  Grom Nowy Staw | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 15 |  Chemik Bydgoszcz | 16 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Victoria Września | 17 | -12 | 15 |
| 17 |  Lipno Stęszew | 16 | -11 | 14 |
| 18 |  Kotwica Kórnik | 17 | -24 | 11 |
More III Liga Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Luzino vs Flota Świnoujście?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Luzino v Flota Świnoujście probabilities?
Luzino win 66%, draw 23%, Flota Świnoujście win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Luzino vs Flota Świnoujście?
Luzino 2–1 Flota Świnoujście is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Luzino vs Flota Świnoujście?
Luzino 2.50, Flota Świnoujście 1.05 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Luzino vs Flota Świnoujście?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – III Liga Group 2.