- λ home
- 1.70
- λ away
- 1.57
- Σλ total
- 3.27
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Grom Nowy Staw vs Kalisz prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Grom Nowy Staw v Kalisz: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Grom Nowy Staw v Kalisz are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (19 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grom Nowy Staw (home) | 1.66 | 1.22 | 0.98 | 1.98 |
| Kalisz (away) | 1.38 | 0.70 | 1.16 | 1.13 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.22 × 0.98 ≈ 1.98
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.11 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.41 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.16 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.27 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.70, λaway = 1.57
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Grom Nowy Staw | 56.4% | 47.0% | 36.4% | 42.5% |
| X Draw | 22.6% | 17.0% | 25.3% | 20.5% |
| 2 Kalisz | 21.0% | 36.0% | 38.3% | 37.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Grom Nowy Staw | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.45 | 40.8% | +4.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -27.8% | |
| 2 · Kalisz | 37.0% | 2.71 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -13.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -8.6% | |
| X2 | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -19.0% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Grom Nowy Staw | 53.5% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kalisz | 46.5% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.2% | 6.18 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -7.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.7% | 2.66 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -12.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -6.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -9.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -5.9% | |
| BTTS no | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.53 | 39.5% | -14.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.9% | 3.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.6% | 2.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.663 × 1.42 − 1 = -0.059 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Grom Nowy Staw | Kalisz |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLL | DDDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Grom Nowy Staw 43%, draw 20%, Kalisz 37%. Standings: Grom Nowy Staw 14th on 19, Kalisz 11th on 20.
Form
Grom Nowy Staw have two wins from their last six (W L L W L L). Latest: 2–1 away at Gedania Gdansk. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Sequence for Kalisz: D D D L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Luzino. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Grom Nowy Staw 1.70 · Kalisz 1.57 · total 3.27. Goals expected – 62% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 66%, odds 1.42 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Grom Nowy Staw 2–1 Kalisz. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polonia Środa | 17 | +24 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kluczevia Stargard | 17 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 |  Luzino | 17 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wda Świecie | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Lech Poznań II | 16 | +11 | 27 |
| 6 |  Unia Swarzędz | 17 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 |  Stargard Szczeciński | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 8 |  Bałtyk Koszalin | 16 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Noteć Czarnków | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Flota Świnoujście | 17 | -12 | 21 |
| 11 |  Kalisz | 16 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Elana Toruń | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Gedania Gdansk | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 |  Grom Nowy Staw | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 15 |  Chemik Bydgoszcz | 16 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Victoria Września | 17 | -12 | 15 |
| 17 |  Lipno Stęszew | 16 | -11 | 14 |
| 18 |  Kotwica Kórnik | 17 | -24 | 11 |
More III Liga Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Grom Nowy Staw vs Kalisz?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.42 by the bookmakers.
What are the Grom Nowy Staw v Kalisz probabilities?
Grom Nowy Staw win 43%, draw 20%, Kalisz win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Grom Nowy Staw vs Kalisz?
Grom Nowy Staw 2–1 Kalisz is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Grom Nowy Staw vs Kalisz?
Grom Nowy Staw 1.70, Kalisz 1.57 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Grom Nowy Staw vs Kalisz?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – III Liga Group 2.