- λ home
- 2.04
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.5%
Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Września prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Kluczevia Stargard v Victoria Września: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Kluczevia Stargard v Victoria Września are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kluczevia Stargard (home) | 1.66 | 1.04 | 0.94 | 1.62 |
| Victoria Września (away) | 1.38 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.94 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.04 × 0.94 ≈ 1.62
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.56 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.04, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kluczevia Stargard | 52.5% | 67.0% | 59.0% | 63.7% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 16.0% | 22.6% | 18.8% |
| 2 Victoria Września | 21.4% | 17.0% | 18.4% | 17.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kluczevia Stargard | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -3.9% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.33 | 3.95 | 25.3% | -25.9% | |
| 2 · Victoria Września | 17.6% | 5.69 | 4.85 | 20.6% | -14.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -10.2% | |
| X2 | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -20.8% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -6.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kluczevia Stargard | 78.4% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Victoria Września | 21.6% | 4.62 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.7% | 4.84 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -12.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -8.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.9% | 2.78 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -11.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -8.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.9% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.4% | 6.08 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.592 × 1.64 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kluczevia Stargard | Victoria Września |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWDWL | DDLDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kluczevia Stargard at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Kluczevia Stargard 2nd on 31, Victoria Września 16th on 15.
Form
Kluczevia Stargard, last six: D W W D W L – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Bałtyk Koszalin. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Victoria Września: D D L D W D, so one victory in six. Latest: 3–3 at home to Wda Świecie. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kluczevia Stargard 2.04 · Victoria Września 0.95 · total 2.99. High total: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.64 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Victoria Września. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polonia Środa | 17 | +24 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kluczevia Stargard | 17 | +4 | 31 |
| 3 |  Luzino | 17 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wda Świecie | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Lech Poznań II | 16 | +11 | 27 |
| 6 |  Unia Swarzędz | 17 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 |  Stargard Szczeciński | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 8 |  Bałtyk Koszalin | 16 | +2 | 21 |
| 9 |  Noteć Czarnków | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Flota Świnoujście | 17 | -12 | 21 |
| 11 |  Kalisz | 16 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Elana Toruń | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Gedania Gdansk | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 |  Grom Nowy Staw | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 15 |  Chemik Bydgoszcz | 16 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Victoria Września | 17 | -12 | 15 |
| 17 |  Lipno Stęszew | 16 | -11 | 14 |
| 18 |  Kotwica Kórnik | 17 | -24 | 11 |
More III Liga Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Września?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.64 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kluczevia Stargard v Victoria Września probabilities?
Kluczevia Stargard win 64%, draw 19%, Victoria Września win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Września?
Kluczevia Stargard 2–1 Victoria Września is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Września?
Kluczevia Stargard 2.04, Victoria Września 0.95 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Września?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – III Liga Group 2.