- λ home
- 1.92
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 2.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.3%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów prediction & xG model: Wiślanie Jaśkowice to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipWiślanie Jaśkowice to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiślanie Jaśkowice (home) | 1.69 | 0.98 | 1.21 | 2.00 |
| Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów (away) | 1.37 | 0.94 | 0.83 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.69 × 0.98 × 1.21 ≈ 2.00
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.07 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.91 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.06 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.92, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 58.3% | 62.0% | 53.4% | 58.4% |
| X Draw | 22.3% | 17.0% | 23.6% | 19.8% |
| 2 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 19.4% | 21.0% | 23.0% | 21.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice pick | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.5% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -25.3% | |
| 2 · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 21.8% | 4.58 | 3.88 | 25.8% | -15.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -9.3% | |
| X2 | 41.6% | 2.40 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -20.1% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 72.8% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 27.2% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.0% | 5.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -10.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.21 | 45.2% | -7.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.0% | 2.70 | 2.36 | 42.4% | -12.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -6.4% | |
| BTTS no | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -13.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.3% | 5.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.584 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.025 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDWL | DLWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 58%, draw 20%, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 22%. Standings: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 8th on 25, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 16th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Wiślanie Jaśkowice: L W L D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Chełmianka Chełm. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów: D L W L D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Korona Kielce II. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.92 · Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1.07 · total 2.99. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Wiślanie Jaśkowice to win, probability 58%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–1 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chełmianka Chełm | 17 | +21 | 43 |
| 2 |  KSZO 1929 | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 |  Czarni Połaniec | 17 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Hetman Zamosc | 16 | +8 | 29 |
| 5 |  Naprzód | 17 | +5 | 29 |
| 6 |  Wisłoka Dębica | 17 | +1 | 29 |
| 7 |  Wisła Kraków II | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 17 | +6 | 25 |
| 9 |  Star Starachowice | 17 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 |  Sokół Kolb. | 17 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 |  Jarosław | 17 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Busko-Zdroj | 17 | -18 | 17 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce II | 16 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 17 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 17 | -16 | 13 |
| 18 |  Moravia Morawica | 16 | -10 | 12 |
More III Liga Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
The Model pick is Wiślanie Jaśkowice to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wiślanie Jaśkowice v Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów probabilities?
Wiślanie Jaśkowice win 58%, draw 20%, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win 22%.
What is the most probable score for Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2–1 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.92, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1.07 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – III Liga Group 4.