- λ home
- 0.85
- λ away
- 1.95
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.9%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II prediction & xG model: Wisła Kraków II to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Podlasie Biała Podlaska v Wisła Kraków II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipWisła Kraków II to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Podlasie Biała Podlaska v Wisła Kraków II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podlasie Biała Podlaska (home) | 1.69 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 1.17 |
| Wisła Kraków II (away) | 1.37 | 0.98 | 1.13 | 1.52 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.69 × 0.79 × 0.87 ≈ 1.17
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.05 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.85, λaway = 1.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.3%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 28.7% | 10.0% | 25.3% | 16.4% |
| X Draw | 26.7% | 15.0% | 25.5% | 19.4% |
| 2 Wisła Kraków II | 44.6% | 75.0% | 49.2% | 64.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 16.4% | 6.09 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -42.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.16 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -32.1% | |
| 2 · Wisła Kraków II pick | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.81 | 55.2% | +16.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.8% | 2.79 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -36.9% | |
| X2 | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.20 | 83.3% | +0.3% | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 20.4% | 4.91 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Wisła Kraków II | 79.6% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -11.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.6% | 4.63 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -2.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -12.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -2.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -18.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -4.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.8% | 1.65 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -8.3% | |
| BTTS no | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -10.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.3% | 6.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.642 × 1.81 − 1 = +0.162 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.199 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | Wisła Kraków II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLDLD | WWWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Wisła Kraków II 64%, Podlasie Biała Podlaska 16%. Standings: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 17th on 13, Wisła Kraków II 7th on 28.
Form
Sequence for Podlasie Biała Podlaska: L L L D L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Naprzód. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Wisła Kraków II: W W W L W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Siarka Tarnobrzeg. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2–3 Wisła Kraków II. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0.85 · Wisła Kraków II 1.95 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Wisła Kraków II to win, probability 64%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0–1 Wisła Kraków II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 May 2026Podlasie Biała Podlaska2–3Wisła Kraków II
III Liga Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chełmianka Chełm | 17 | +21 | 43 |
| 2 |  KSZO 1929 | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 |  Czarni Połaniec | 17 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Hetman Zamosc | 16 | +8 | 29 |
| 5 |  Naprzód | 17 | +5 | 29 |
| 6 |  Wisłoka Dębica | 17 | +1 | 29 |
| 7 |  Wisła Kraków II | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 17 | +6 | 25 |
| 9 |  Star Starachowice | 17 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 |  Sokół Kolb. | 17 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 |  Jarosław | 17 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Busko-Zdroj | 17 | -18 | 17 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce II | 16 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 17 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 17 | -16 | 13 |
| 18 |  Moravia Morawica | 16 | -10 | 12 |
More III Liga Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II?
The Model pick is Wisła Kraków II to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Podlasie Biała Podlaska v Wisła Kraków II probabilities?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 16%, draw 19%, Wisła Kraków II win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0–1 Wisła Kraków II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0.85, Wisła Kraków II 1.95 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wisła Kraków II?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – III Liga Group 4.