- λ home
- 1.89
- λ away
- 1.13
- Σλ total
- 3.02
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
Sokół Kolb. vs Busko-Zdroj prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sokół Kolb. 57% · draw 19% · Busko-Zdroj 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sokół Kolb. v Busko-Zdroj: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sokół Kolb. v Busko-Zdroj are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.94 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.09 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.02 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.89, λaway = 1.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 55.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sokół Kolb. | – | 61.0% | 50.9% | 56.8% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 23.9% | 19.3% |
| 2 Busko-Zdroj | – | 23.0% | 25.2% | 23.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sokół Kolb. | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.17 | 3.72 | 26.9% | -28.1% | |
| 2 · Busko-Zdroj | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -15.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -9.4% | |
| X2 | 43.2% | 2.31 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -21.3% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sokół Kolb. | 70.4% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Busko-Zdroj | 29.6% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.8% | 5.06 | 4.55 | 22.0% | -10.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -6.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -12.8% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -7.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -9.6% | |
| BTTS no | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -8.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.4% | 4.89 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.629 × 1.47 − 1 = -0.075 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sokół Kolb. | Busko-Zdroj |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLD | WLLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Sokół Kolb. 57%, draw 19%, Busko-Zdroj 24%. Standings: Sokół Kolb. 14th on 16, Busko-Zdroj 13th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Sokół Kolb.: L L L W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–3 away at Czarni Połaniec. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Busko-Zdroj, last six: W L L L L W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Jarosław. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sokół Kolb. 1.89 · Busko-Zdroj 1.13 · total 3.02. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.47 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Sokół Kolb. 2–1 Busko-Zdroj. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chełmianka Chełm | 16 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  KSZO 1929 | 16 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Hetman Zamosc | 16 | +8 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wisłoka Dębica | 16 | +4 | 29 |
| 5 |  Naprzód | 16 | +5 | 28 |
| 6 |  Czarni Połaniec | 16 | +3 | 28 |
| 7 |  Wisła Kraków II | 16 | +1 | 25 |
| 8 |  Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Star Starachowice | 16 | +3 | 23 |
| 10 |  Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 12 |  Jarosław | 16 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Busko-Zdroj | 16 | -14 | 17 |
| 14 |  Sokół Kolb. | 16 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce II | 16 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 |  Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 16 | -15 | 13 |
| 17 |  Moravia Morawica | 16 | -10 | 12 |
| 18 |  Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 16 | -13 | 12 |
More III Liga Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sokół Kolb. vs Busko-Zdroj?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.47 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sokół Kolb. v Busko-Zdroj probabilities?
Sokół Kolb. win 57%, draw 19%, Busko-Zdroj win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Sokół Kolb. vs Busko-Zdroj?
Sokół Kolb. 2–1 Busko-Zdroj is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sokół Kolb. vs Busko-Zdroj?
Sokół Kolb. 1.89, Busko-Zdroj 1.13 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Sokół Kolb. vs Busko-Zdroj?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – III Liga Group 4.