- λ home
- 1.89
- λ away
- 0.81
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.7%
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau prediction & xG model: Austria Vienna or draw
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Austria Vienna v Austria Lustenau: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAustria Vienna or draw✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Austria Vienna v Austria Lustenau are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.70 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.89, λaway = 0.81
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Austria Vienna | – | 73.0% | 49.5% | 63.1% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.1% | 20.8% |
| 2 Austria Lustenau | – | 10.0% | 24.4% | 16.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.093 → 9.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Austria Vienna | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +16.8% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.80 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -27.1% | |
| 2 · Austria Lustenau | 16.0% | 6.23 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -39.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X pick | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +4.9% | |
| X2 | 36.9% | 2.71 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -31.8% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +2.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Austria Vienna | 79.7% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Austria Lustenau | 20.3% | 4.93 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.9% | 4.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 42.3% | 2.36 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -11.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.1% | 6.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.840 × 1.25 − 1 = +0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.198 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Austria Vienna | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLDLW | WLDWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Austria Vienna 63% to win. Standings: Austria Vienna 11th on 8, Austria Lustenau 8th on 11.
Form
Austria Vienna, last six: W L L D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 6–0 away at Traiskirchen. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Austria Lustenau have two wins from their last six (W L D W L D). Latest: 6–2 away at SV Lafnitz. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Austria Vienna 1.89 · Austria Lustenau 0.81 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Austria Vienna or draw, probability 84%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.19. Most probable score: Austria Vienna 1–0 Austria Lustenau. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 12 | +30 | 33 |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 12 | +24 | 30 |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 12 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |  TSV Hartberg | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 5 |  Sturm Graz | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Ried | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 |  WSG Wattens | 12 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Austria Lustenau | 12 | -15 | 11 |
| 9 |  SCR Altach | 12 | -9 | 10 |
| 10 |  Grazer AK | 12 | -20 | 10 |
| 11 |  Austria Vienna | 12 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 12 | -18 | 6 |
More Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
The Model pick is Austria Vienna or draw with a model probability of 84, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Austria Vienna v Austria Lustenau probabilities?
Austria Vienna win 63%, draw 21%, Austria Lustenau win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna 1–0 Austria Lustenau is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna 1.89, Austria Lustenau 0.81 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Generali Arena – Bundesliga.