- λ home
- 1.62
- λ away
- 1.73
- Σλ total
- 3.35
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.8%
Śląsk Wrocław II vs Lechia Zielona Góra prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Śląsk Wrocław II v Lechia Zielona Góra: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Śląsk Wrocław II v Lechia Zielona Góra are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Śląsk Wrocław II (home) | 1.62 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.68 |
| Lechia Zielona Góra (away) | 1.35 | 1.02 | 1.27 | 1.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 0.98 × 1.05 ≈ 1.68
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.35 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.62, λaway = 1.73
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Śląsk Wrocław II | 37.1% | 40.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 17.0% | 26.8% | 21.1% |
| 2 Lechia Zielona Góra | 39.4% | 43.0% | 39.9% | 41.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Śląsk Wrocław II | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.71 | 36.9% | +0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -29.0% | |
| 2 · Lechia Zielona Góra | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.26 | 44.2% | -5.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -13.1% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -15.2% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Śląsk Wrocław II | 47.1% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lechia Zielona Góra | 52.9% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 6.00 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -16.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -7.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | 2.76 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -12.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.8% | 2.33 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -7.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -8.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.6% | |
| BTTS no | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -15.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.0% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.1% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.8% | 3.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.682 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.046 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Śląsk Wrocław II | Lechia Zielona Góra |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLLD | WWLDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 21 / 42% for home, draw, away. Standings: Śląsk Wrocław II 17th on 10, Lechia Zielona Góra 6th on 25.
Form
Sequence for Śląsk Wrocław II: L L L L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–3 away at Świt Skolwin. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Lechia Zielona Góra, last six: W W L D L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Stal Stalowa Wola. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Śląsk Wrocław II 1.62 · Lechia Zielona Góra 1.73 · total 3.35. High total: over 2.5 64%, BTTS 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 68%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Śląsk Wrocław II 1–2 Lechia Zielona Góra. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
II Liga East table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Znicz Pruszków | 16 | +12 | 34 |
| 2 |  Górnik Łęczna | 16 | +19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tychy 71 | 14 | +11 | 27 |
| 4 |  Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 15 | +8 | 25 |
| 5 |  Podhale Nowy Targ | 16 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |  Lechia Zielona Góra | 16 | -1 | 25 |
| 7 |  Chojniczanka Chojnice | 16 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 |  Legia Warszawa II | 15 | +5 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Olimpia Grudziądz | 15 | -3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Hutnik Kraków | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Avia Świdnik | 16 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 |  Stal Stalowa Wola | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 |  Sokół Kleczew | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 15 |  Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 15 | +1 | 18 |
| 16 |  Świt Skolwin | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Śląsk Wrocław II | 16 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 |  Resovia Rzeszów | 15 | -16 | 6 |
More II Liga East predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Śląsk Wrocław II vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Śląsk Wrocław II v Lechia Zielona Góra probabilities?
Śląsk Wrocław II win 37%, draw 21%, Lechia Zielona Góra win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Śląsk Wrocław II vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
Śląsk Wrocław II 1–2 Lechia Zielona Góra is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Śląsk Wrocław II vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
Śląsk Wrocław II 1.62, Lechia Zielona Góra 1.73 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is Śląsk Wrocław II vs Lechia Zielona Góra?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – II Liga East.