- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 1.08
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.2%
Górnik Łęczna vs Hutnik Kraków prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Górnik Łęczna v Hutnik Kraków: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Górnik Łęczna v Hutnik Kraków are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Górnik Łęczna (home) | 1.62 | 1.36 | 0.93 | 2.06 |
| Hutnik Kraków (away) | 1.35 | 0.98 | 0.69 | 0.90 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 1.36 × 0.93 ≈ 2.06
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.96 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 1.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Górnik Łęczna | 63.3% | 61.0% | 52.8% | 57.5% |
| X Draw | 21.3% | 20.0% | 24.2% | 21.8% |
| 2 Hutnik Kraków | 15.4% | 19.0% | 23.0% | 20.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Górnik Łęczna | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.2% | |
| X · Draw | 21.8% | 4.59 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -19.4% | |
| 2 · Hutnik Kraków | 20.7% | 4.84 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -19.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.4% | |
| X2 | 42.5% | 2.36 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -17.2% | |
| 12 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Górnik Łęczna | 73.6% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hutnik Kraków | 26.4% | 3.78 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.6% | 4.85 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -10.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +4.3% | |
| BTTS no | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -21.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.3% | 5.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.624 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.043 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.064 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Górnik Łęczna | Hutnik Kraków |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLL | LWLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Górnik Łęczna ahead at 58%, against 21% for Hutnik Kraków and 22% for the draw. Standings: Górnik Łęczna 2nd on 32, Hutnik Kraków 11th on 21.
Form
Górnik Łęczna, last six: W W W W L L – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Resovia Rzeszów. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Hutnik Kraków, last six: L W L L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Avia Świdnik. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Górnik Łęczna 1.95 · Hutnik Kraków 1.08 · total 3.03. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Górnik Łęczna 2–1 Hutnik Kraków. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
II Liga East table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Znicz Pruszków | 16 | +12 | 34 |
| 2 |  Górnik Łęczna | 16 | +19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tychy 71 | 14 | +11 | 27 |
| 4 |  Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 15 | +8 | 25 |
| 5 |  Podhale Nowy Targ | 16 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |  Lechia Zielona Góra | 16 | -1 | 25 |
| 7 |  Chojniczanka Chojnice | 16 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 |  Legia Warszawa II | 15 | +5 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Olimpia Grudziądz | 15 | -3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Hutnik Kraków | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Avia Świdnik | 16 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 |  Stal Stalowa Wola | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 |  Sokół Kleczew | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 15 |  Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 15 | +1 | 18 |
| 16 |  Świt Skolwin | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Śląsk Wrocław II | 16 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 |  Resovia Rzeszów | 15 | -16 | 6 |
More II Liga East predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Górnik Łęczna vs Hutnik Kraków?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Górnik Łęczna v Hutnik Kraków probabilities?
Górnik Łęczna win 58%, draw 22%, Hutnik Kraków win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Górnik Łęczna vs Hutnik Kraków?
Górnik Łęczna 2–1 Hutnik Kraków is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Górnik Łęczna vs Hutnik Kraków?
Górnik Łęczna 1.95, Hutnik Kraków 1.08 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Górnik Łęczna vs Hutnik Kraków?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – II Liga East.