- λ home
- 2.04
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.1%
Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Świdnik prediction & xG model: Podhale Nowy Targ to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Podhale Nowy Targ v Avia Świdnik: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipPodhale Nowy Targ to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Podhale Nowy Targ v Avia Świdnik are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podhale Nowy Targ (home) | 1.62 | 1.06 | 0.94 | 1.62 |
| Avia Świdnik (away) | 1.35 | 0.79 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 1.06 × 0.94 ≈ 1.62
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.61 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.04, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Podhale Nowy Targ | 51.0% | 72.0% | 48.3% | 62.0% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 23.0% | 26.2% | 24.4% |
| 2 Avia Świdnik | 22.9% | 5.0% | 25.5% | 13.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Podhale Nowy Targ pick | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.87 | 53.5% | +16.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.11 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -16.2% | |
| 2 · Avia Świdnik | 13.6% | 7.35 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -51.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.21 | 82.6% | +4.5% | |
| X2 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -34.3% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Podhale Nowy Targ | 82.0% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Avia Świdnik | 18.0% | 5.56 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.54 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -13.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -9.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.2% | 2.93 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -10.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -9.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -8.6% | |
| BTTS no | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.19 | 45.7% | -7.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.6% | 6.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.620 × 1.87 − 1 = +0.160 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.184 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Podhale Nowy Targ | Avia Świdnik |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLDDD | WLDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-5-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Podhale Nowy Targ 62% to win. Standings: Podhale Nowy Targ 5th on 25, Avia Świdnik 12th on 20.
Form
Sequence for Podhale Nowy Targ: D D L D D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Znicz Pruszków. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Avia Świdnik, last six: W L D L W W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Hutnik Kraków. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Podhale Nowy Targ 2.04 · Avia Świdnik 0.89 · total 2.94. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Podhale Nowy Targ to win, probability 62%, odds 1.87 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Podhale Nowy Targ 2–0 Avia Świdnik. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
II Liga East table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Znicz Pruszków | 16 | +12 | 34 |
| 2 |  Górnik Łęczna | 16 | +19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tychy 71 | 14 | +11 | 27 |
| 4 |  Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 15 | +8 | 25 |
| 5 |  Podhale Nowy Targ | 16 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |  Lechia Zielona Góra | 16 | -1 | 25 |
| 7 |  Chojniczanka Chojnice | 16 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 |  Legia Warszawa II | 15 | +5 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Olimpia Grudziądz | 15 | -3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Hutnik Kraków | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Avia Świdnik | 16 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 |  Stal Stalowa Wola | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 |  Sokół Kleczew | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 15 |  Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 15 | +1 | 18 |
| 16 |  Świt Skolwin | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Śląsk Wrocław II | 16 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 |  Resovia Rzeszów | 15 | -16 | 6 |
More II Liga East predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Świdnik?
The Model pick is Podhale Nowy Targ to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.87 by the bookmakers.
What are the Podhale Nowy Targ v Avia Świdnik probabilities?
Podhale Nowy Targ win 62%, draw 24%, Avia Świdnik win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Świdnik?
Podhale Nowy Targ 2–0 Avia Świdnik is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Świdnik?
Podhale Nowy Targ 2.04, Avia Świdnik 0.89 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Świdnik?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT, at Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego – II Liga East.