- λ home
- 0.83
- λ away
- 1.96
- Σλ total
- 2.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.0%
Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Radnicki 1923 v FK Crvena Zvezda: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Radnicki 1923 v FK Crvena Zvezda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (27 and 42 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radnicki 1923 (home) | 1.66 | 1.07 | 0.58 | 1.03 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda (away) | 1.38 | 1.69 | 0.82 | 1.92 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.07 × 0.58 ≈ 1.03
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.95 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.79 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.83, λaway = 1.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.7%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Radnicki 1923 | 19.7% | 17.0% | 14.9% | 16.1% |
| X Draw | 23.1% | 18.0% | 21.3% | 19.4% |
| 2 FK Crvena Zvezda | 57.2% | 65.0% | 63.8% | 64.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Radnicki 1923 | 16.1% | 6.21 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -3.3% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.16 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -18.6% | |
| 2 · FK Crvena Zvezda | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -7.7% | |
| X2 | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.0% | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Radnicki 1923 | 20.0% | 5.00 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FK Crvena Zvezda | 80.0% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.3% | 4.30 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.8% | 1.83 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -4.2% | |
| BTTS no | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -11.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.0% | 6.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.548 × 1.75 − 1 = -0.042 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Radnicki 1923 | FK Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDWW | WWDWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FK Crvena Zvezda favoured on the road at 65% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Radnicki 1923 5th on 23, FK Crvena Zvezda 1st on 43.
Form
Sequence for Radnicki 1923: W W D D W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 5–3 away at OFK Beograd. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
FK Crvena Zvezda have four wins from their last six (W W D W W L). Latest: 3–0 at home to Radnicki NIS. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Radnicki 1923 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Radnicki 1923 0.83 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1.96 · total 2.79. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Radnicki 1923 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Mar 2026Radnicki 19230–2FK Crvena Zvezda
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Radnicki 1923 v FK Crvena Zvezda probabilities?
Radnicki 1923 win 16%, draw 19%, FK Crvena Zvezda win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
Radnicki 1923 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
Radnicki 1923 0.83, FK Crvena Zvezda 1.96 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda?
Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Čika Dača Stadium – Super Liga.