- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 0.78
- Σλ total
- 2.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.2%
Cukaricki vs Macva prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Cukaricki v Macva: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Cukaricki v Macva are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cukaricki (home) | 1.66 | 1.06 | 0.90 | 1.59 |
| Macva (away) | 1.38 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.06 × 0.90 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.48 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.65 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 0.78
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cukaricki | 53.0% | 63.0% | 60.1% | 61.8% |
| X Draw | 26.5% | 25.0% | 24.4% | 24.7% |
| 2 Macva | 20.6% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 13.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cukaricki | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.3% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.04 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -8.5% | |
| 2 · Macva | 13.5% | 7.41 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -21.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.5% | 1.16 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -4.0% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -8.3% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cukaricki | 82.1% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Macva | 17.9% | 5.58 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.8% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.5% | 3.64 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.4% | 1.91 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +7.4% | |
| BTTS no | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -19.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.5% | 6.89 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.524 × 2.05 − 1 = +0.074 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.070 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cukaricki | Macva |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLLW | LLDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Cukaricki at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Cukaricki 7th on 22, Macva 11th on 13.
Form
Cukaricki, last six: L D L L L W – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Železničar Pančevo. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Macva have one win from their last six (L L D D W L). Latest: 1–2 at home to Mladost Lucani. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cukaricki 1.87 · Macva 0.78 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 2.05 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Cukaricki 2–1 Macva. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cukaricki vs Macva?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 2.05 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cukaricki v Macva probabilities?
Cukaricki win 62%, draw 25%, Macva win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Cukaricki vs Macva?
Cukaricki 2–1 Macva is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cukaricki vs Macva?
Cukaricki 1.87, Macva 0.78 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Cukaricki vs Macva?
Saturday 10 October 2026, 16:00 WAT, at FK Čukarički Stadion – Super Liga.