- λ home
- 1.58
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.40
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.3%
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica prediction & xG model: IMT Novi Beograd to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipIMT Novi Beograd to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMT Novi Beograd (home) | 1.66 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Radnik Surdulica (away) | 1.38 | 0.98 | 0.62 | 0.84 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.76 × 0.88 ≈ 1.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.95 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.40 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.58, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 55.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 IMT Novi Beograd | 41.0% | 62.0% | 50.8% | 57.3% |
| X Draw | 32.5% | 17.0% | 26.9% | 21.2% |
| 2 Radnik Surdulica | 26.5% | 21.0% | 22.2% | 21.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · IMT Novi Beograd pick | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +0.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -30.1% | |
| 2 · Radnik Surdulica | 21.5% | 4.65 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -13.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.8% | |
| X2 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -16.7% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +1.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB IMT Novi Beograd | 72.7% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Radnik Surdulica | 27.3% | 3.66 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.8% | 3.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.0% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.1% | 4.52 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -7.2% | |
| BTTS no | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -7.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.0% | 5.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.573 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.003 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.004 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | IMT Novi Beograd | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDWLD | DDDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
IMT Novi Beograd ahead at 57%, against 22% for Radnik Surdulica and 21% for the draw. Standings: IMT Novi Beograd 4th on 23, Radnik Surdulica 6th on 23.
Form
Sequence for IMT Novi Beograd: D L D W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Vojvodina. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Radnik Surdulica, last six: D D D W L W – two wins in total. Latest: 4–4 at home to FK Partizan. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Radnik Surdulica. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG IMT Novi Beograd 1.58 · Radnik Surdulica 0.82 · total 2.40. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: IMT Novi Beograd to win, probability 57%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Mar 2026IMT Novi Beograd0–0Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
The Model pick is IMT Novi Beograd to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the IMT Novi Beograd v Radnik Surdulica probabilities?
IMT Novi Beograd win 57%, draw 21%, Radnik Surdulica win 22%.
What is the most probable score for IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnik Surdulica is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
IMT Novi Beograd 1.58, Radnik Surdulica 0.82 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica?
Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stadion FK IMT – Super Liga.