- λ home
- 1.73
- λ away
- 1.72
- Σλ total
- 3.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.4%
Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Strasbourg 39% · draw 22% · Stade Brestois 29 39%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Strasbourg v Stade Brestois 29: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Strasbourg v Stade Brestois 29 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg (home) | 1.64 | 1.25 | 0.90 | 1.84 |
| Stade Brestois 29 (away) | 1.33 | 1.14 | 1.22 | 1.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 1.25 × 0.90 ≈ 1.84
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.04 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.73, λaway = 1.72
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Strasbourg | 38.6% | 35.0% | 42.5% | 39.4% |
| X Draw | 22.4% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 22.0% |
| 2 Stade Brestois 29 | 39.0% | 49.0% | 32.5% | 38.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.068 → 6.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Strasbourg | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -13.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.0% | 4.55 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -17.5% | |
| 2 · Stade Brestois 29 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.88 | 34.7% | +11.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -14.0% | |
| X2 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +1.2% | |
| 12 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Strasbourg | 50.5% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Stade Brestois 29 | 49.5% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -1.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.6% | 5.68 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -20.8% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +1.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -14.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +7.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -11.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -0.3% | |
| BTTS no | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -17.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.8% | 3.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.5% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.7% | 3.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.628 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.018 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.029 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Strasbourg | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLLL | WWLDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Strasbourg 39%, draw 22%, Stade Brestois 29 39%. Standings: Strasbourg 13th on 10, Stade Brestois 29 9th on 15.
Form
Strasbourg have one win from their last six (L W L L L L). Latest: 1–3 away at Toulouse. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Stade Brestois 29 have three wins from their last six (W W L D W D). Latest: 2–0 at home to Lyon. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Stade Brestois 29 1–2 Strasbourg. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Strasbourg 1.73 · Stade Brestois 29 1.72 · total 3.45. Goals expected – 63% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Strasbourg 2–1 Stade Brestois 29. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 May 2026Stade Brestois 291–2Strasbourg
Ligue 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Strasbourg v Stade Brestois 29 probabilities?
Strasbourg win 39%, draw 22%, Stade Brestois 29 win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Strasbourg 2–1 Stade Brestois 29 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Strasbourg 1.73, Stade Brestois 29 1.72 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Stade de la Meinau – Ligue 1.