- λ home
- 1.26
- λ away
- 0.92
- Σλ total
- 2.18
- P(over 2.5)
- 42%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.2%
Lille vs Lyon prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Lille 42% · draw 28% · Lyon 30%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Lille v Lyon: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Lille v Lyon are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille (home) | 1.64 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.13 |
| Lyon (away) | 1.33 | 0.88 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 0.89 × 0.78 ≈ 1.13
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.88 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.18 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.26, λaway = 0.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 27.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lille | 43.4% | 43.0% | 40.4% | 42.1% |
| X Draw | 32.9% | 18.0% | 28.6% | 27.6% |
| 2 Lyon | 23.7% | 39.0% | 31.0% | 30.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lille | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -3.2% | |
| X · Draw | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -10.2% | |
| 2 · Lyon | 30.3% | 3.30 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -9.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.7% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -5.2% | |
| X2 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -9.0% | |
| 12 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -3.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lille | 58.1% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lyon | 41.9% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -9.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +8.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.37 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -15.4% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -21.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.0% | 1.78 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +0.9% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -14.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.3% | 3.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.2% | 4.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.577 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.039 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.049 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lille | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWDLD | LDWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Lille ahead at 42%, against 30% for Lyon and 28% for the draw. Standings: Lille 2nd on 21, Lyon 5th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Lille: W D W D L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Rennes. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Lyon, last six: L D W L L W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Stade Brestois 29. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lille 1.26 · Lyon 0.92 · total 2.18. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 58%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 58%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Lille 1–0 Lyon. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lille vs Lyon?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lille v Lyon probabilities?
Lille win 42%, draw 28%, Lyon win 30%.
What is the most probable score for Lille vs Lyon?
Lille 1–0 Lyon is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lille vs Lyon?
Lille 1.26, Lyon 0.92 – over 2.5 at 42%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Lille vs Lyon?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Stade Pierre-Mauroy – Ligue 1.