- λ home
- 1.24
- λ away
- 1.85
- Σλ total
- 3.08
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.5%
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Nice 21% · draw 21% · Paris Saint Germain 58%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Nice v Paris Saint Germain: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Nice v Paris Saint Germain are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice (home) | 1.64 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 1.26 |
| Paris Saint Germain (away) | 1.33 | 1.35 | 0.89 | 1.61 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 1.03 × 0.75 ≈ 1.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.87 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.95 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.51 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.08 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.24, λaway = 1.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 25.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 51.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nice | 29.6% | 18.0% | 16.6% | 21.5% |
| X Draw | 25.7% | 15.0% | 20.3% | 20.9% |
| 2 Paris Saint Germain | 44.7% | 67.0% | 63.1% | 57.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.094 → 9.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Nice | 21.5% | 4.66 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +18.1% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.77 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -5.8% | |
| 2 · Paris Saint Germain | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -16.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +11.1% | |
| X2 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Nice | 27.2% | 3.68 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Paris Saint Germain | 72.8% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.6% | 6.01 | 6.50 | 15.4% | +8.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.57 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -10.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +8.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.3% | 2.37 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -15.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -2.4% | |
| BTTS no | 34.9% | 2.86 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -12.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.6% | 4.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.651 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Nice | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWW | WWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 3.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Paris Saint Germain narrowly ahead at 58%; Nice 21%. Standings: Nice 6th on 17, Paris Saint Germain 1st on 23.
Form
Nice, last six: W W W L W W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Angers. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Paris Saint Germain have six wins from their last six (W W W W W W). Latest: 1–0 at home to Estac Troyes. 3.5 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Nice 1.24 · Paris Saint Germain 1.85 · total 3.08. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Nice 1–2 Paris Saint Germain. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Nice v Paris Saint Germain probabilities?
Nice win 21%, draw 21%, Paris Saint Germain win 58%.
What is the most probable score for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nice 1–2 Paris Saint Germain is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nice 1.24, Paris Saint Germain 1.85 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 17:15 WAT, at Allianz Riviera – Ligue 1.