- λ home
- 1.01
- λ away
- 1.25
- Σλ total
- 2.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 39%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.2%
Parma vs Cagliari prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Parma v Cagliari: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Parma v Cagliari are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.26 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.01, λaway = 1.25
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Parma | – | 28.0% | 37.6% | 32.0% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 30.6% | 23.9% |
| 2 Cagliari | – | 53.0% | 31.8% | 44.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.071 → 7.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Parma | 32.0% | 3.12 | 2.48 | 40.3% | -20.5% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.19 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -27.2% | |
| 2 · Cagliari | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.94 | 34.0% | +29.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -22.8% | |
| X2 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 66.7% | +1.9% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Parma | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cagliari | 57.9% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -5.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -6.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -5.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -5.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.1% | 4.97 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -9.5% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +4.8% | |
| BTTS no | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -15.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.6% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.3% | 3.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.799 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.041 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Parma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDDWL | WDDWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Cagliari narrowly ahead at 44%; Parma 32%. Standings: Parma 16th on 8, Cagliari 9th on 16.
Form
Parma, last six: W L D D W L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Catania. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Cagliari, last six: W D D W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Arezzo. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Parma 1–1 Cagliari. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Parma 1.01 · Cagliari 1.25 · total 2.26. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 39%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 80%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.25. Most probable score: Parma 0–1 Cagliari. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 Feb 2026Parma1–1Cagliari
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Parma vs Cagliari?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 80, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Parma v Cagliari probabilities?
Parma win 32%, draw 24%, Cagliari win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma 0–1 Cagliari is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma 1.01, Cagliari 1.25 – over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Parma vs Cagliari?
Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Stadio Ennio Tardini – Serie A.