- λ home
- 2.26
- λ away
- 0.76
- Σλ total
- 3.02
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.5%
Inter vs Monza prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Inter v Monza: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Inter v Monza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter (home) | 1.55 | 1.54 | 1.34 | 3.20 |
| Monza (away) | 1.43 | 1.02 | 0.84 | 1.23 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.54 × 1.34 ≈ 3.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.43 | 60% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.02 | 40% |
| Blended total λ | 3.02 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.26, λaway = 0.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 71.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Inter | 75.5% | 67.0% | 77.9% | 71.6% |
| X Draw | 13.5% | 18.0% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| 2 Monza | 11.0% | 15.0% | 6.0% | 11.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.070 → 7.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Inter | 71.6% | 1.40 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -14.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.2% | 5.81 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -0.2% | |
| 2 · Monza | 11.2% | 8.90 | 15.50 | 6.5% | +74.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.8% | 1.13 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -8.6% | |
| X2 | 28.4% | 3.52 | 4.33 | 23.1% | +23.1% | |
| 12 | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -8.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Inter | 86.4% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Monza | 13.6% | 7.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.7% | 4.84 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -10.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -5.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -7.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -4.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.8% | 1.86 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +23.6% | |
| BTTS no | 46.2% | 2.16 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -27.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.7% | 1.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.3% | 8.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.538 × 2.30 − 1 = +0.236 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.182 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Inter | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDWD | WDLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Inter at 72%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Inter 2nd on 28, Monza 18th on 7.
Form
Sequence for Inter: W W D D W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Real Betis. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Monza: W D L W W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to Avellino. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Inter 2.26 · Monza 0.76 · total 3.02. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 2.30 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Inter 2–1 Monza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Inter vs Monza?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.30 by the bookmakers.
What are the Inter v Monza probabilities?
Inter win 72%, draw 17%, Monza win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Inter vs Monza?
Inter 2–1 Monza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Inter vs Monza?
Inter 2.26, Monza 0.76 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Inter vs Monza?
Saturday 22 August 2026, 17:30 WAT – Serie A.