- λ home
- 0.73
- λ away
- 1.66
- Σλ total
- 2.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 0–1 15.1%
Genoa vs Napoli prediction & xG model: Napoli to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Genoa v Napoli: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNapoli to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Genoa v Napoli are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.39 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.73, λaway = 1.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 16.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 59.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 15.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Genoa | – | 14.0% | 20.3% | 16.7% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 28.3% | 23.5% |
| 2 Napoli | – | 66.0% | 51.4% | 59.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.070 → 7.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Genoa | 16.7% | 6.00 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -23.4% | |
| X · Draw | 23.5% | 4.26 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -22.5% | |
| 2 · Napoli pick | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.82 | 54.9% | +8.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.2% | 2.49 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -22.5% | |
| X2 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -1.7% | |
| 12 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -4.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Genoa | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Napoli | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -3.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.1% | 3.11 | 2.85 | 35.1% | -8.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -5.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.2% | 4.49 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 47.7% | 2.09 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -16.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.9% | 6.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.6% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.598 × 1.82 − 1 = +0.089 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.109 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWDW | WDWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Napoli narrowly ahead at 60%; Genoa 17%. Standings: Genoa 13th on 13, Napoli 10th on 15.
Form
Genoa, last six: W L L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 4–1 at home to Ascoli. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Napoli, last six: W D W W L W – four wins in total. Latest: 6–2 at home to Aris Thessalonikis. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Genoa 0.73 · Napoli 1.66 · total 2.39. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Napoli to win, probability 60%, odds 1.82 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Genoa 0–1 Napoli. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Genoa vs Napoli?
The Model pick is Napoli to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.82 by the bookmakers.
What are the Genoa v Napoli probabilities?
Genoa win 17%, draw 23%, Napoli win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa 0–1 Napoli is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa 0.73, Napoli 1.66 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Genoa vs Napoli?
Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Stadio Luigi Ferraris – Serie A.