- λ home
- 2.20
- λ away
- 0.88
- Σλ total
- 3.08
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.1%
Viborg vs AC Horsens prediction & xG model: Viborg to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Viborg v AC Horsens: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipViborg to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Viborg v AC Horsens are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg (home) | 1.68 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.79 |
| AC Horsens (away) | 1.42 | 1.04 | 0.82 | 1.21 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.03 × 1.03 ≈ 1.79
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.00 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.08 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.08 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.20, λaway = 0.88
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Viborg | 50.1% | 71.0% | 60.3% | 66.5% |
| X Draw | 24.3% | 20.0% | 21.6% | 20.7% |
| 2 AC Horsens | 25.6% | 9.0% | 18.1% | 12.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.105 → 10.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Viborg pick | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -0.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.84 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -13.3% | |
| 2 · AC Horsens | 12.8% | 7.80 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -35.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.2% | 1.15 | 1.15 | 87.0% | +0.3% | |
| X2 | 33.5% | 2.99 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -23.0% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Viborg | 83.8% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB AC Horsens | 16.2% | 6.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.8% | 5.33 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.1% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.1% | |
| BTTS no | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -13.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.1% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.4% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.5% | 6.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.665 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Viborg | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLWL | DWDDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Viborg 67% to win. Standings: Viborg 3rd on 26, AC Horsens 7th on 16.
Form
Viborg have two wins from their last six (L L W L W L). Latest: 1–2 away at Aarhus. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded.
AC Horsens, last six: D W D D W D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Brabrand. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): AC Horsens 2–3 Viborg. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Viborg 2.20 · AC Horsens 0.88 · total 3.08. Goals expected – 59% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Viborg to win, probability 67%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Viborg 2–0 AC Horsens. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Aug 2026AC Horsens2–3Viborg
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Viborg vs AC Horsens?
The Model pick is Viborg to win with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Viborg v AC Horsens probabilities?
Viborg win 67%, draw 21%, AC Horsens win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Viborg vs AC Horsens?
Viborg 2–0 AC Horsens is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Viborg vs AC Horsens?
Viborg 2.20, AC Horsens 0.88 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Viborg vs AC Horsens?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Energi Viborg Arena – Superliga.