- λ home
- 1.68
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.1%
Odense vs Silkeborg prediction & xG model: Odense to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Odense v Silkeborg: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOdense to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Odense v Silkeborg are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odense (home) | 1.68 | 0.88 | 1.19 | 1.76 |
| Silkeborg (away) | 1.42 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 1.19 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 0.88 × 1.19 ≈ 1.76
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.95 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.68, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Odense | 50.1% | 65.0% | 49.7% | 58.6% |
| X Draw | 24.5% | 10.0% | 24.8% | 16.2% |
| 2 Silkeborg | 25.4% | 25.0% | 25.5% | 25.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.089 → 8.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Odense pick | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +8.3% | |
| X · Draw | 16.2% | 6.16 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -40.0% | |
| 2 · Silkeborg | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -9.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.5% | |
| X2 | 41.4% | 2.41 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -23.3% | |
| 12 | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Odense | 69.9% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Silkeborg | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.8% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.2% | 3.82 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.1% | 3.70 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -7.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -6.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.3% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.9% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.8% | 5.33 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.586 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.083 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.098 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Odense | Silkeborg |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWDLD | DLDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Odense 59%, draw 16%, Silkeborg 25%. Standings: Odense 6th on 17, Silkeborg 9th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Odense: L D W D L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 away at FC Midtjylland. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Silkeborg have one win from their last six (D L D W D D). Latest: 1–1 at home to FC Nordsjaelland. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Odense 0, Silkeborg 3, drawn 0, 3.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Silkeborg 1–0 Odense. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Odense 1.68 · Silkeborg 0.95 · total 2.63. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Odense to win, probability 59%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Odense 1–0 Silkeborg. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 10 Aug 2026Silkeborg1–0Odense
- 3 May 2026Odense2–3Silkeborg
- 12 Apr 2026Silkeborg3–1Odense
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Odense vs Silkeborg?
The Model pick is Odense to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Odense v Silkeborg probabilities?
Odense win 59%, draw 16%, Silkeborg win 25%.
What is the most probable score for Odense vs Silkeborg?
Odense 1–0 Silkeborg is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Odense vs Silkeborg?
Odense 1.68, Silkeborg 0.95 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Odense vs Silkeborg?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Nature Energy Park – Superliga.