- λ home
- 0.86
- λ away
- 2.05
- Σλ total
- 2.91
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 0–2 11.5%
Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland prediction & xG model: FC Nordsjaelland to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Silkeborg v FC Nordsjaelland: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Nordsjaelland to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Silkeborg v FC Nordsjaelland are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silkeborg (home) | 1.68 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 1.34 |
| FC Nordsjaelland (away) | 1.42 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 2.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 0.91 × 0.87 ≈ 1.34
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.34 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.91 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.91 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.86, λaway = 2.05
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 65.2%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Silkeborg | 25.2% | 9.0% | 21.9% | 14.4% |
| X Draw | 22.6% | 19.0% | 23.0% | 20.7% |
| 2 FC Nordsjaelland | 52.2% | 72.0% | 55.1% | 64.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Silkeborg | 14.4% | 6.93 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -39.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.84 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -17.3% | |
| 2 · FC Nordsjaelland pick | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +8.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -28.0% | |
| X2 | 85.6% | 1.17 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +4.4% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Silkeborg | 18.2% | 5.50 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Nordsjaelland | 81.8% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.3% | 4.69 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.3% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -13.8% | |
| BTTS no | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +5.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.9% | 6.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.649 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.084 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.125 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Silkeborg | FC Nordsjaelland |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWDDD | DDDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 0-4-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Nordsjaelland favoured on the road at 65% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Silkeborg 9th on 15, FC Nordsjaelland 4th on 23.
Form
Silkeborg, last six: L D W D D D – one win in total. Latest: 0–4 away at Sonderjyske. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for FC Nordsjaelland: D D D D L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to CSKA Sofia. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 Silkeborg. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Silkeborg 0.86 · FC Nordsjaelland 2.05 · total 2.91. High total: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Nordsjaelland to win, probability 65%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Silkeborg 0–2 FC Nordsjaelland. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 16 Aug 2026FC Nordsjaelland1–0Silkeborg
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland?
The Model pick is FC Nordsjaelland to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Silkeborg v FC Nordsjaelland probabilities?
Silkeborg win 14%, draw 21%, FC Nordsjaelland win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland?
Silkeborg 0–2 FC Nordsjaelland is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland?
Silkeborg 0.86, FC Nordsjaelland 2.05 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 WAT, at JYSK Park – Superliga.