- λ home
- 1.76
- λ away
- 1.74
- Σλ total
- 3.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.2%
AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
AC Horsens v Sonderjyske: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 5–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for AC Horsens v Sonderjyske are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens (home) | 1.68 | 1.04 | 1.32 | 2.31 |
| Sonderjyske (away) | 1.42 | 0.90 | 1.03 | 1.32 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.04 × 1.32 ≈ 2.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.63 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.50 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.76, λaway = 1.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 AC Horsens | 59.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | 39.4% |
| X Draw | 20.2% | 18.0% | 28.2% | 22.3% |
| 2 Sonderjyske | 20.8% | 42.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.091 → 9.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · AC Horsens | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -6.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -27.6% | |
| 2 · Sonderjyske | 38.4% | 2.61 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +5.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -13.7% | |
| X2 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -6.0% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB AC Horsens | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sonderjyske | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +1.1% | |
| BTTS no | 35.6% | 2.81 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -19.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.2% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.2% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.6% | 3.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.644 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.011 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.019 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | AC Horsens | Sonderjyske |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWDWL | WLWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – AC Horsens 39%, draw 22%, Sonderjyske 38%. Standings: AC Horsens 7th on 16, Sonderjyske 12th on 9.
Form
AC Horsens, last six: D D W D W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Randers FC. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Sonderjyske have two wins from their last six (W L W L D L). Latest: 4–0 at home to Silkeborg. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Sonderjyske 2–5 AC Horsens. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG AC Horsens 1.76 · Sonderjyske 1.74 · total 3.50. Goals expected – 68% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: AC Horsens 2–1 Sonderjyske. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Sep 2026Sonderjyske2–5AC Horsens
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the AC Horsens v Sonderjyske probabilities?
AC Horsens win 39%, draw 22%, Sonderjyske win 38%.
What is the most probable score for AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske?
AC Horsens 2–1 Sonderjyske is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske?
AC Horsens 1.76, Sonderjyske 1.74 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:00 WAT, at CASA Arena – Superliga.