- λ home
- 1.25
- λ away
- 1.42
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Randers FC vs Viborg prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Randers FC v Viborg: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Randers FC v Viborg are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC (home) | 1.68 | 0.76 | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| Viborg (away) | 1.42 | 1.03 | 1.23 | 1.80 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 0.76 × 0.82 ≈ 1.05
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.85 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.25, λaway = 1.42
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Randers FC | 21.5% | 39.0% | 29.6% | 35.0% |
| X Draw | 24.2% | 18.0% | 27.8% | 22.1% |
| 2 Viborg | 54.3% | 43.0% | 42.6% | 42.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.091 → 9.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Randers FC | 35.0% | 2.85 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +8.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.1% | 4.52 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -27.0% | |
| 2 · Viborg | 42.8% | 2.33 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -7.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.6% | |
| X2 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -12.3% | |
| 12 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Randers FC | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Viborg | 55.0% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.5% | |
| BTTS no | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -8.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.4% | 3.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.5% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.1% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.602 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Randers FC | Viborg |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWWL | LWLDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 43% against 35%. Standings: Randers FC 11th on 11, Viborg 3rd on 26.
Form
Randers FC, last six: L W L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–4 away at Sonderjyske. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Viborg, last six: L W L D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Holstein Kiel. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Randers FC 1.25 · Viborg 1.42 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Randers FC 1–2 Viborg. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
More Superliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Randers FC vs Viborg?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Randers FC v Viborg probabilities?
Randers FC win 35%, draw 22%, Viborg win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Randers FC vs Viborg?
Randers FC 1–2 Viborg is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Randers FC vs Viborg?
Randers FC 1.25, Viborg 1.42 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Randers FC vs Viborg?
Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 WAT, at Cepheus Park Randers – Superliga.