Denmark Superliga Sun 11 Oct 2026 · MCH Arena Full time

FC Midtjylland

WDWWD

2–1

Half-time 1–0

FC Copenhagen

WWWWL

39%P(1)21%P(X)40%P(2)

λ home: 1.58
λ away: 1.59
Σλ total: 3.17
P(over 2.5): 61%
P(BTTS): 64%
Modal score: 1–1 10.6%

FC Midtjylland vs FC Copenhagen prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

FC Midtjylland v FC Copenhagen: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for FC Midtjylland v FC Copenhagen are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
FC Midtjylland (home)	1.68	1.25	0.66	1.39
FC Copenhagen (away)	1.42	1.26	0.86	1.55

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.68 × 1.25 × 0.66 ≈ 1.39

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.94	64%
Statistical xG feed	3.17	36%
Blended total λ	3.17	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.58, λ_away = 1.59

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

FC Midtjylland λ = 1.58

020.6%

132.6%

225.7%

313.5%

45.3%

5+2.3%

FC Copenhagen λ = 1.59

020.4%

132.4%

225.8%

313.7%

45.4%

5+2.3%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

FC \ FC 012345+

04.26.75.32.81.1·

16.6118.44.51.80.8

25.28.36.63.51.40.6

32.84.43.51.80.7·

41.11.71.40.7··

5+·0.70.6···

Σ home-win cells: 37.9%
Σ draw cells: 23.6%
Σ away-win cells: 38.5%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 10.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 FC Midtjylland	33.7%	41.0%	36.6%	39.1%
X Draw	25.6%	17.0%	26.9%	21.2%
2 FC Copenhagen	40.7%	42.0%	36.6%	39.7%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.094 → 9.4% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · FC Midtjylland	39.1%	2.56	2.50	40.0%	-2.2%
X · Draw	21.2%	4.73	3.40	29.4%	-28.1%
2 · FC Copenhagen	39.7%	2.52	2.50	40.0%	-0.7%
Double chance
1X	60.3%	1.66	1.44	69.4%	-13.2%
X2	60.9%	1.64	1.50	66.7%	-8.7%
12	78.8%	1.27	1.29	77.5%	+1.7%
Draw no bet
DNB FC Midtjylland	49.6%	2.01	–	–	–
DNB FC Copenhagen	50.4%	1.99	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	82.5%	1.21	–	–	–
Under 1.5	17.5%	5.71	–	–	–
Over 2.5	61.4%	1.63	–	–	–
Under 2.5	38.6%	2.59	–	–	–
Over 3.5	39.1%	2.56	–	–	–
Under 3.5	60.9%	1.64	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	64.3%	1.55	1.55	64.5%	-0.3%
BTTS no	35.7%	2.80	2.30	43.5%	-17.9%
Half-time
HT 1	30.6%	3.27	–	–	–
HT X	38.4%	2.60	–	–	–
HT 2	31.0%	3.23	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability64.3%

Fair odds1.55

Best odds1.55

EV per unit-0.3%

EV = 0.643 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.003 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	FC Midtjylland	FC Copenhagen
Sequence	DWWDWD	LWWWWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-3-0	5-0-1
Points per match	2.00	2.50
Goals for / match	2.83	2.17
Goals against / match	0.83	0.33
Over 2.5	50%	33%
BTTS	67%	0%
Clean sheets	33%	83%
Failed to score	0%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 21 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: FC Midtjylland 2nd on 32, FC Copenhagen 1st on 32.

Form

Sequence for FC Midtjylland: D W W D W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Odense. 2.8 goals a match in that spell.

FC Copenhagen, last six: L W W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Hamburger SV. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 5 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (May 2026): FC Copenhagen 0–1 FC Midtjylland. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG FC Midtjylland 1.58 · FC Copenhagen 1.59 · total 3.17. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 64%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: FC Midtjylland 1–2 FC Copenhagen. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

14 May 2026FC Copenhagen0–1FC Midtjylland

Superliga table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9