Lithuania A Lyga Sun 8 Nov 2026 · Marijampole Football Arena Full time

Džiugas Telšiai

LLDWL

62%P(1)21%P(X)17%P(2)

λ home: 1.86
λ away: 0.83
Σλ total: 2.69
P(over 2.5): 52%
P(BTTS): 50%
Modal score: 1–0 12.6%

Suduva Marijampole vs Džiugas Telšiai prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Suduva Marijampole v Džiugas Telšiai: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Suduva Marijampole v Džiugas Telšiai are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Suduva Marijampole (home)	1.56	1.11	1.14	1.95
Džiugas Telšiai (away)	1.24	1.04	0.81	1.04

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.56 × 1.11 × 1.14 ≈ 1.95

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.00	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.59	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.78	30%
Blended total λ	2.69	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.86, λ_away = 0.83

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Suduva Marijampole λ = 1.86

015.5%

128.9%

226.9%

316.7%

47.8%

5+4.1%

Džiugas Telšiai λ = 0.83

043.5%

136.2%

215.1%

34.2%

40.9%

5+0.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Sud \ Dži012345+

06.85.62.30.6··

113104.41.2··

2129.84.11.1··

37.36.12.50.7··

43.42.81.2···

5+1.81.50.6···

Σ home-win cells: 61.7%
Σ draw cells: 22.1%
Σ away-win cells: 16.2%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 12.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Suduva Marijampole	57.8%	65.0%	58.5%	62.3%
X Draw	22.7%	19.0%	23.6%	20.9%
2 Džiugas Telšiai	19.4%	16.0%	17.9%	16.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Suduva Marijampole	62.3%	1.61	1.53	65.4%	-4.7%
X · Draw	20.9%	4.78	3.80	26.3%	-20.5%
2 · Džiugas Telšiai	16.8%	5.95	5.00	20.0%	-16.0%
Double chance
1X	83.2%	1.20	1.11	90.1%	-7.7%
X2	37.7%	2.65	2.25	44.4%	-15.1%
12	79.1%	1.26	1.18	84.7%	-6.7%
Draw no bet
DNB Suduva Marijampole	78.8%	1.27	–	–	–
DNB Džiugas Telšiai	21.2%	4.71	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	75.0%	1.33	1.25	80.0%	-6.2%
Under 1.5	25.0%	4.00	3.75	26.7%	-6.3%
Over 2.5	51.6%	1.94	1.80	55.6%	-7.2%
Under 2.5	48.4%	2.06	2.00	50.0%	-3.1%
Over 3.5	29.8%	3.35	3.00	33.3%	-10.5%
Under 3.5 pick	70.2%	1.43	1.36	73.5%	-4.6%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	49.9%	2.00	1.83	54.6%	-8.7%
BTTS no	50.1%	2.00	1.83	54.6%	-8.3%
Half-time
HT 1	44.0%	2.27	–	–	–
HT X	40.4%	2.47	–	–	–
HT 2	15.5%	6.45	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability70.2%

Fair odds1.43

Best odds1.36

EV per unit-4.6%

EV = 0.702 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.046 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	Džiugas Telšiai
Sequence	WLLDDL	LWDLLD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-2-3	1-2-3
Points per match	0.83	0.83
Goals for / match	0.67	1.33
Goals against / match	2.00	2.50
Over 2.5	50%	83%
BTTS	50%	67%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	50%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Suduva Marijampole 62% to win. Standings: Suduva Marijampole 2nd on 56, Džiugas Telšiai 6th on 42.

Form

Suduva Marijampole, last six: W L L D D L – one win in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Banga. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.

Džiugas Telšiai have one win from their last six (L W D L L D). Latest: 1–2 away at Šiauliai. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Previous 3: Suduva Marijampole 3, Džiugas Telšiai 0, drawn 0, 3.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Džiugas Telšiai 0–2 Suduva Marijampole. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Suduva Marijampole 1.86 · Džiugas Telšiai 0.83 · total 2.69. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 50%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.43. Most probable score: Suduva Marijampole 1–0 Džiugas Telšiai. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

17 Aug 2026Džiugas Telšiai0–2Suduva Marijampole
21 Jun 2026Džiugas Telšiai1–2Suduva Marijampole
19 Apr 2026Suduva Marijampole3–2Džiugas Telšiai

A Lyga table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kauno Žalgiris	32	16	10	6	+37	58
2	Suduva Marijampole	32	15	11	6	+11	56
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	32	16	6	10	+15	54
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	32	15	7	10	+12	52
5	Banga	32	11	9	12	+1	42
6	Džiugas Telšiai	32	11	9	12	-5	42
7	Panevėžys	32	11	5	16	-14	38
8	Hegelmann Litauen	32	4	14	14	-25	26
9	Šiauliai	32	5	9	18	-32	24
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0	0	0	0