- λ home
- 0.97
- λ away
- 1.72
- Σλ total
- 2.69
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.7%
Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Banga v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Banga v FK Zalgiris Vilnius are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.48 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.69 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.97, λaway = 1.72
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 55.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Banga | – | 24.0% | 23.1% | 23.6% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 24.0% | 18.8% |
| 2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | – | 61.0% | 52.9% | 57.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Banga | 23.6% | 4.24 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -7.9% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.33 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -29.6% | |
| 2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.4% | 2.36 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -17.3% | |
| X2 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.9% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Banga | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.2% | 4.13 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -3.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -9.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -1.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -14.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -3.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -11.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.8% | 5.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.3% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 39.8% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.758 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.075 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Banga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWLL | DWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 58% against 24%. Standings: Banga 5th on 42, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3rd on 54.
Form
Banga have one win from their last six (L D L W L L). Latest: 1–2 away at Suduva Marijampole. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius have three wins from their last six (D W W L L W). Latest: 0–0 away at Kauno Žalgiris. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Banga 2, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0, drawn 1, 3.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–3 Banga. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Banga 0.97 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.72 · total 2.69. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Banga 0–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 16 Aug 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius2–3Banga
- 20 Jun 2026Banga3–0FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 17 Apr 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius1–1Banga
A Lyga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 32 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 |  Suduva Marijampole | 32 | +11 | 56 |
| 3 |  FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 32 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 |  TransINVEST Vilnius | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Banga | 32 | +1 | 42 |
| 6 |  Džiugas Telšiai | 32 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 |  Panevėžys | 32 | -14 | 38 |
| 8 |  Hegelmann Litauen | 32 | -25 | 26 |
| 9 |  Šiauliai | 32 | -32 | 24 |
| 10 |  FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More A Lyga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Banga v FK Zalgiris Vilnius probabilities?
Banga win 24%, draw 19%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 58%.
What is the most probable score for Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Banga 0–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Banga 0.97, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.72 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 13:15 WAT, at Gargzdai stadium – A Lyga.