Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Tue 17 Nov 2026 · Nyayo National Stadium Upcoming

Kenya

DWDLD

17:00

Tuesday · WAT

South Africa

LWWWD

26%P(1)24%P(X)50%P(2)

λ home: 1.11
λ away: 1.38
Σλ total: 2.50
P(over 2.5): 41%
P(BTTS): 46%
Modal score: 1–1 12.7%

Kenya vs South Africa prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals

The Arena debate

Kenya v South Africa: who are you backing?

Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipOver 1.5 goals67% chance · @1.46

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Kenya v South Africa are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (6 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Kenya (home)	1.66	1.01	0.76	1.27
South Africa (away)	1.38	1.07	0.89	1.31

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.01 × 0.76 ≈ 1.27

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.58	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.75	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.16	30%
Blended total λ	2.50	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.11, λ_away = 1.38

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Kenya λ = 1.11

032.8%

136.6%

220.4%

37.6%

42.1%

5+0.6%

South Africa λ = 1.38

025.1%

134.7%

224.0%

311.1%

43.8%

5+1.4%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Ken \ Sou012345+

08.2117.93.61.3·

19.2138.84.01.4·

25.17.14.92.30.8·

31.92.61.80.8··

40.50.70.5···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 30.2%
Σ draw cells: 26.7%
Σ away-win cells: 43.0%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 12.7%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Kenya	35.2%	24.0%	19.6%	26.1%
X Draw	27.8%	11.0%	28.4%	24.2%
2 South Africa	37.0%	65.0%	52.0%	49.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Kenya	26.1%	3.84	4.70	21.3%	+22.5%
X · Draw	24.2%	4.14	3.24	30.9%	-21.7%
2 · South Africa	49.8%	2.01	1.77	56.5%	-11.9%
Double chance
1X	50.2%	1.99	1.93	51.8%	-3.1%
X2	73.9%	1.35	1.15	87.0%	-15.0%
12	75.8%	1.32	1.29	77.5%	-2.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Kenya	34.4%	2.91	–	–	–
DNB South Africa	65.6%	1.52	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5 pick	66.6%	1.50	1.46	68.5%	-2.8%
Under 1.5	33.4%	2.99	2.38	42.0%	-20.5%
Over 2.5	41.1%	2.43	2.54	39.4%	+4.4%
Under 2.5	58.9%	1.70	1.47	68.0%	-13.4%
Over 3.5	21.3%	4.69	4.90	20.4%	+4.5%
Under 3.5	78.7%	1.27	1.11	90.1%	-12.7%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	46.0%	2.17	2.26	44.2%	+4.0%
BTTS no	54.0%	1.85	1.55	64.5%	-16.3%
Half-time
HT 1	24.1%	4.15	–	–	–
HT X	44.0%	2.27	–	–	–
HT 2	31.9%	3.14	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 1.5 goals

Probability66.6%

Fair odds1.50

Best odds1.46

EV per unit-2.8%

EV = 0.666 × 1.46 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Kenya	South Africa
Sequence	DLDWDW	DWWWLW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-3-1	4-1-1
Points per match	1.50	2.17
Goals for / match	1.83	1.83
Goals against / match	0.83	0.67
Over 2.5	50%	50%
BTTS	50%	33%
Clean sheets	33%	50%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Marginal away preference, 50% against 26%. Standings: Kenya 3rd on 6, South Africa 1st on 14.

Form

Kenya have two wins from their last six (D L D W D W). Latest: 2–2 away at South Africa. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded.

South Africa have four wins from their last six (D W W W L W). Latest: 2–2 at home to Kenya. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Nov 2026): South Africa 2–2 Kenya. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Kenya 1.11 · South Africa 1.38 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 46%.

Model selection

Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.46 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Kenya 1–2 South Africa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.