Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Tue 17 Nov 2026 Upcoming

Ethiopia

WDLLW

14:00

Tuesday · WAT

Mozambique

LDWL

41%P(1)20%P(X)40%P(2)

λ home: 1.10
λ away: 1.08
Σλ total: 2.18
P(over 2.5): 37%
P(BTTS): 45%
Modal score: 1–1 13.4%

Ethiopia vs Mozambique prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals

The Arena debate

Ethiopia v Mozambique: who are you backing?

Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipOver 1.5 goals63% chance · @1.50

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Ethiopia v Mozambique are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (7 and 4 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Ethiopia (home)	1.66	0.73	0.86	–
Mozambique (away)	1.38	0.96	0.67	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.73 × 0.86 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.17	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.19	55%
Blended total λ	2.18	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.10, λ_away = 1.08

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Ethiopia λ = 1.10

033.4%

136.6%

220.1%

37.3%

42.0%

5+0.5%

Mozambique λ = 1.08

033.8%

136.7%

219.9%

37.2%

41.9%

5+0.5%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Eth \ Moz012345+

011126.62.40.7·

112137.32.60.7·

26.87.44.01.4··

32.52.71.50.5··

40.70.7····

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 35.7%
Σ draw cells: 29.3%
Σ away-win cells: 35.0%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 13.4%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Ethiopia	–	46.0%	33.0%	40.6%
X Draw	–	11.0%	31.3%	19.5%
2 Mozambique	–	43.0%	35.6%	39.9%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.101 → 10.1% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Ethiopia	40.6%	2.47	2.75	36.4%	+11.5%
X · Draw	19.5%	5.12	2.90	34.5%	-43.3%
2 · Mozambique	39.9%	2.51	2.55	39.2%	+1.8%
Double chance
1X	60.1%	1.66	1.44	69.4%	-13.5%
X2	59.4%	1.68	1.36	73.5%	-19.2%
12	80.5%	1.24	1.30	76.9%	+4.6%
Draw no bet
DNB Ethiopia	50.4%	1.98	–	–	–
DNB Mozambique	49.6%	2.02	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5 pick	63.3%	1.58	1.50	66.7%	-5.1%
Under 1.5	36.7%	2.72	2.50	40.0%	-8.2%
Over 2.5	37.4%	2.68	2.50	40.0%	-6.6%
Under 2.5	62.6%	1.60	1.50	66.7%	-6.1%
Over 3.5	19.2%	5.22	4.50	22.2%	-13.7%
Under 3.5	80.8%	1.24	1.17	85.5%	-5.4%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	45.5%	2.20	2.10	47.6%	-4.5%
BTTS no	54.5%	1.83	1.67	59.9%	-8.9%
Half-time
HT 1	26.4%	3.79	–	–	–
HT X	47.6%	2.10	–	–	–
HT 2	26.0%	3.85	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 1.5 goals

Probability63.3%

Fair odds1.58

Best odds1.50

EV per unit-5.1%

EV = 0.633 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.051 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Ethiopia	Mozambique
Sequence	WLLDWW	LWDL
Matches	6	4
W-D-L	3-1-2	1-1-2
Points per match	1.67	1.00
Goals for / match	0.67	1.25
Goals against / match	0.50	1.00
Over 2.5	0%	25%
BTTS	17%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	33%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

No clear favourite in the grid – Ethiopia 41%, draw 20%, Mozambique 40%. Standings: Ethiopia 4th on 4, Mozambique 2nd on 11.

Form

Sequence for Ethiopia: W L L D W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Mozambique. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Mozambique: L W D L, so one victory in four. Latest: 0–1 at home to Ethiopia. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded.

Head to head

Last meeting (Nov 2026): Mozambique 0–1 Ethiopia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Ethiopia 1.10 · Mozambique 1.08 · total 2.18. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 63%.

Model selection

Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Ethiopia 2–1 Mozambique. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.