Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Tue 17 Nov 2026 · Independence Stadium Upcoming

Gambia

LLWWL

17:00

Tuesday · WAT

Ivory Coast

LWWLW

28%P(1)16%P(X)56%P(2)

λ home: 1.09
λ away: 1.73
Σλ total: 2.82
P(over 2.5): 49%
P(BTTS): 47%
Modal score: 1–1 11.2%

Gambia vs Ivory Coast prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score

The Arena debate

Gambia v Ivory Coast: who are you backing?

Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipNot both teams to score53% chance · @1.63

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Gambia v Ivory Coast are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (5 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Gambia (home)	1.66	1.21	0.67	–
Ivory Coast (away)	1.38	0.99	1.14	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.21 × 0.67 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	3.25	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.47	55%
Blended total λ	2.82	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.09, λ_away = 1.73

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Gambia λ = 1.09

033.5%

136.6%

220.0%

37.3%

42.0%

5+0.5%

Ivory Coast λ = 1.73

017.7%

130.7%

226.5%

315.3%

46.6%

5+3.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Gam \ Ivo012345+

05.9108.95.12.21.1

16.5119.75.62.41.2

23.66.15.33.11.30.6

31.32.21.91.1··

4·0.60.5···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 24.0%
Σ draw cells: 23.8%
Σ away-win cells: 52.3%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 11.2%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Gambia	–	37.0%	14.7%	27.6%
X Draw	–	11.0%	23.9%	16.4%
2 Ivory Coast	–	52.0%	61.4%	55.9%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Gambia	27.6%	3.62	6.25	16.0%	+72.8%
X · Draw	16.4%	6.09	3.85	26.0%	-36.8%
2 · Ivory Coast	55.9%	1.79	1.50	66.7%	-16.1%
Double chance
1X	44.1%	2.27	2.39	41.8%	+5.3%
X2	72.4%	1.38	1.08	92.6%	-21.9%
12	83.6%	1.20	1.22	82.0%	+2.0%
Draw no bet
DNB Gambia	33.1%	3.02	–	–	–
DNB Ivory Coast	66.9%	1.49	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	73.4%	1.36	1.30	76.9%	-4.5%
Under 1.5	26.6%	3.76	2.97	33.7%	-21.1%
Over 2.5	49.2%	2.03	2.08	48.1%	+2.4%
Under 2.5	50.8%	1.97	1.69	59.2%	-14.2%
Over 3.5	27.9%	3.58	3.70	27.0%	+3.3%
Under 3.5	72.1%	1.39	1.20	83.3%	-13.5%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	47.4%	2.11	2.11	47.4%	+0.1%
BTTS no pick	52.6%	1.90	1.63	61.3%	-14.3%
Half-time
HT 1	21.0%	4.75	–	–	–
HT X	40.5%	2.47	–	–	–
HT 2	38.5%	2.60	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickNot both teams to score

Probability52.6%

Fair odds1.90

Best odds1.63

EV per unit-14.3%

EV = 0.526 × 1.63 − 1 = -0.143 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Gambia	Ivory Coast
Sequence	LWWLL	WLWWLW
Matches	5	6
W-D-L	2-0-3	4-0-2
Points per match	1.20	2.00
Goals for / match	1.80	1.50
Goals against / match	2.20	0.67
Over 2.5	100%	33%
BTTS	100%	33%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Marginal away preference, 56% against 28%. Standings: Gambia 3rd on 8, Ivory Coast 2nd on 12.

Form

Gambia, last five: L W W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Ivory Coast. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Ivory Coast have four wins from their last six (W L W W L W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Gambia. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Nov 2026): Ivory Coast 2–1 Gambia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Gambia 1.09 · Ivory Coast 1.73 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 47%.

Model selection

Highest-rated market: Not both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.90. Most probable score: Gambia 0–1 Ivory Coast. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.