- λ home
- 2.36
- λ away
- 0.75
- Σλ total
- 3.11
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.5%
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Levadia Tallinn v Tammeka: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 6–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Levadia Tallinn v Tammeka are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (40 and 36 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn (home) | 1.66 | 2.28 | 0.76 | 2.88 |
| Tammeka (away) | 1.38 | 1.64 | 0.43 | 0.97 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 2.28 × 0.76 ≈ 2.88
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.85 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.11 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.11 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.36, λaway = 0.75
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 73.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Levadia Tallinn | 76.0% | 70.0% | 76.6% | 72.8% |
| X Draw | 14.4% | 19.0% | 16.4% | 17.9% |
| 2 Tammeka | 9.7% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.106 → 10.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Levadia Tallinn | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -14.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.9% | 5.58 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -1.4% | |
| 2 · Tammeka | 9.3% | 10.75 | 13.00 | 7.7% | +20.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.7% | 1.10 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -6.6% | |
| X2 | 27.2% | 3.67 | 4.20 | 23.8% | +14.3% | |
| 12 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -8.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Levadia Tallinn | 88.7% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tammeka | 11.3% | 8.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.3% | 5.46 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.1% | |
| BTTS no | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -10.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 53.5% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.9% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.6% | 8.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.554 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.041 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Levadia Tallinn | Tammeka |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWW | WLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 6-0-0 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FC Levadia Tallinn 73% to win. Standings: FC Levadia Tallinn 1st on 91, Tammeka 5th on 53.
Form
FC Levadia Tallinn, last six: W W W W W W – six wins in total. Latest: 4–0 at home to Vaprus. Scoring rate: 3.5 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Tammeka, last six: W L W L W W – four wins in total. Latest: 3–1 away at Kuressaare. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: FC Levadia Tallinn 2, Tammeka 0, drawn 0, 2.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (May 2026): Tammeka 0–1 FC Levadia Tallinn. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Levadia Tallinn 2.36 · Tammeka 0.75 · total 3.11. Goals expected – 60% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Tammeka. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 May 2026Tammeka0–1FC Levadia Tallinn
- 22 Apr 2026Tammeka1–2FC Levadia Tallinn
Meistriliiga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 36 | +68 | 91 |
| 2 |  Paide | 36 | +13 | 64 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 36 | +17 | 62 |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 36 | +25 | 61 |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 36 | -10 | 53 |
| 6 |  Laagri | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 36 | -18 | 40 |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 36 | -22 | 38 |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 36 | -19 | 37 |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 36 | -50 | 23 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Levadia Tallinn v Tammeka probabilities?
FC Levadia Tallinn win 73%, draw 18%, Tammeka win 9%.
What is the most probable score for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?
FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Tammeka is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?
FC Levadia Tallinn 2.36, Tammeka 0.75 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is FC Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka?
Thursday 17 September 2026, 17:00 WAT, at A. Le Coq Arena – Meistriliiga.