- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.43
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
Remo vs Botafogo prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Remo v Botafogo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Remo v Botafogo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remo (home) | 1.52 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 1.30 |
| Botafogo (away) | 1.14 | 0.79 | 1.19 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.81 × 1.07 ≈ 1.30
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.37 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.80 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.43
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Remo | 41.2% | 39.0% | 36.3% | 37.9% |
| X Draw | 29.1% | 17.0% | 27.5% | 21.4% |
| 2 Botafogo | 29.7% | 44.0% | 36.3% | 40.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.103 → 10.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Remo | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -5.4% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -29.4% | |
| 2 · Botafogo | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +1.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -11.1% | |
| X2 | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Remo | 48.2% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Botafogo | 51.8% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -2.1% | |
| BTTS no | 36.8% | 2.71 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -15.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.4% | 3.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.3% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.2% | 3.31 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.632 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.021 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Remo | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDDLL | LWDLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 21 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Remo 19th on 29, Botafogo 11th on 42.
Form
Remo, last six: L D D D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Cruzeiro. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Botafogo have two wins from their last six (L W D L L W). Latest: 0–3 away at Internacional. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Remo 1.37 · Botafogo 1.43 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Remo 1–2 Botafogo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Remo vs Botafogo?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Remo v Botafogo probabilities?
Remo win 38%, draw 21%, Botafogo win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Remo vs Botafogo?
Remo 1–2 Botafogo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Remo vs Botafogo?
Remo 1.37, Botafogo 1.43 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Remo vs Botafogo?
Thursday 29 October 2026, 01:30 WAT, at Estádio Evandro Almeida – Serie A.