- λ home
- 1.70
- λ away
- 0.77
- Σλ total
- 2.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.4%
Bahia vs Sao Paulo prediction & xG model: Bahia to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Bahia v Sao Paulo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBahia to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Bahia v Sao Paulo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia (home) | 1.52 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 1.41 |
| Sao Paulo (away) | 1.14 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.08 × 0.86 ≈ 1.41
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.30 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.47 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.70, λaway = 0.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bahia | 48.1% | 70.0% | 49.3% | 61.3% |
| X Draw | 28.6% | 16.0% | 26.1% | 20.2% |
| 2 Sao Paulo | 23.3% | 14.0% | 24.6% | 18.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.097 → 9.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bahia pick | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +13.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.2% | 4.94 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -29.2% | |
| 2 · Sao Paulo | 18.5% | 5.41 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -31.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.5% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +1.9% | |
| X2 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -29.2% | |
| 12 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +2.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bahia | 76.8% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sao Paulo | 23.2% | 4.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.4% | 3.41 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.6% | 4.24 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -9.1% | |
| BTTS no | 43.2% | 2.31 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -2.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.8% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.3% | 6.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.613 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.134 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.158 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bahia | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWLLW | DWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Bahia at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Bahia 6th on 53, Sao Paulo 10th on 44.
Form
Bahia, last six: D L W L L W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Santos. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Sao Paulo, last six: D W W L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Mirassol. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bahia 1.70 · Sao Paulo 0.77 · total 2.47. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Bahia to win, probability 61%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
The Model pick is Bahia to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bahia v Sao Paulo probabilities?
Bahia win 61%, draw 20%, Sao Paulo win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia 1.70, Sao Paulo 0.77 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Thursday 29 October 2026, 01:30 WAT, at Arena Fonte Nova – Serie A.