- λ home
- 2.73
- λ away
- 1.46
- Σλ total
- 4.19
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.2%
France U20 vs Denmark U20 prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
France U20 v Denmark U20: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for France U20 v Denmark U20 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 5.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 4.19 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.73, λaway = 1.46
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 France U20 | – | 62.0% | 60.3% | 61.3% |
| X Draw | – | 23.0% | 23.5% | 23.2% |
| 2 Denmark U20 | – | 15.0% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · France U20 | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -9.3% | |
| X · Draw | 23.2% | 4.31 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -11.8% | |
| 2 · Denmark U20 | 15.5% | 6.45 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -14.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -6.2% | |
| X2 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -12.9% | |
| 12 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB France U20 | 79.8% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Denmark U20 | 20.2% | 4.95 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +0.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.2% | 7.02 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -35.9% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +9.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -28.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +18.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -23.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +9.4% | |
| BTTS no | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -27.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.6% | 3.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.8% | 5.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.694 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.090 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.158 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 3 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | France U20 | Denmark U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLL | D |
| Matches | 3 | 1 |
| W-D-L | 0-0-3 | 0-1-0 |
| Points per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% |
| BTTS | 33% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – France U20 61% to win.
Form
France U20 have zero wins from their last three (L L L). Latest: 0–3 at home to Italy U20. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG France U20 2.73 · Denmark U20 1.46 · total 4.19. Goals expected – 69% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.44. Most probable score: France U20 2–1 Denmark U20. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Eswatini1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for France U20 vs Denmark U20?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the France U20 v Denmark U20 probabilities?
France U20 win 61%, draw 23%, Denmark U20 win 16%.
What is the most probable score for France U20 vs Denmark U20?
France U20 2–1 Denmark U20 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for France U20 vs Denmark U20?
France U20 2.73, Denmark U20 1.46 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is France U20 vs Denmark U20?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Friendlies.