Friendlies Thu 12 Nov 2026 · Pinatar Arena Full time

Scotland U21

DLWW

4–0

Half-time 2–0

Ukraine U21

WLDWD

23%P(1)52%P(X)25%P(2)

λ home: 1.58
λ away: 1.63
Σλ total: 3.21
P(over 2.5): 58%
P(BTTS): 61%
Modal score: 1–1 10.4%

Scotland U21 vs Ukraine U21 prediction & xG model: Ukraine U21 or draw

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Scotland U21 v Ukraine U21: how the Arena called it

Full time: 4–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUkraine U21 or draw✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Scotland U21 v Ukraine U21 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (5 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Scotland U21 (home)	1.66	1.41	1.17	–
Ukraine U21 (away)	1.38	0.90	0.80	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.41 × 1.17 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	3.67	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.83	55%
Blended total λ	3.21	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.58, λ_away = 1.63

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Scotland U21 λ = 1.58

020.6%

132.6%

225.7%

313.5%

45.3%

5+2.2%

Ukraine U21 λ = 1.63

019.6%

131.9%

226.0%

314.2%

45.8%

5+2.5%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Sco \ Ukr012345+

04.06.65.42.91.20.5

16.4108.54.61.90.8

25.08.26.73.61.50.7

32.64.33.51.90.8·

41.01.71.40.8··

5+·0.70.6···

Σ home-win cells: 37.1%
Σ draw cells: 23.4%
Σ away-win cells: 39.5%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 10.4%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Scotland U21	–	14.0%	35.5%	23.0%
X Draw	–	70.0%	26.2%	51.6%
2 Ukraine U21	–	16.0%	38.3%	25.3%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Scotland U21	23.0%	4.34	2.51	39.8%	-42.2%
X · Draw	51.6%	1.94	3.40	29.4%	+75.5%
2 · Ukraine U21	25.3%	3.94	2.33	42.9%	-40.9%
Double chance
1X	74.7%	1.34	1.45	69.0%	+8.2%
X2 pick	77.0%	1.30	1.39	71.9%	+7.0%
12	48.4%	2.07	1.21	82.6%	-41.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Scotland U21	47.6%	2.10	–	–	–
DNB Ukraine U21	52.4%	1.91	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	79.7%	1.25	1.18	84.7%	-5.9%
Under 1.5	20.3%	4.94	3.84	26.0%	-22.2%
Over 2.5	57.9%	1.73	1.71	58.5%	-0.9%
Under 2.5	42.1%	2.38	1.98	50.5%	-16.7%
Over 3.5	36.0%	2.77	2.81	35.6%	+1.3%
Under 3.5	64.0%	1.56	1.33	75.2%	-14.9%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	61.2%	1.64	1.58	63.3%	-3.4%
BTTS no	38.8%	2.57	2.15	46.5%	-16.5%
Half-time
HT 1	30.2%	3.31	–	–	–
HT X	38.1%	2.62	–	–	–
HT 2	31.7%	3.16	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUkraine U21 or draw

Probability77.0%

Fair odds1.30

Best odds1.39

EV per unit+7.0%

EV = 0.770 × 1.39 − 1 = +0.070 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.179 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Scotland U21	Ukraine U21
Sequence	WWLD	DWDLWD
Matches	4	6
W-D-L	2-1-1	2-3-1
Points per match	1.75	1.50
Goals for / match	1.75	1.33
Goals against / match	1.25	1.50
Over 2.5	50%	67%
BTTS	25%	67%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	50%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Probabilities are almost level: 23 / 52 / 25% for home, draw, away.

Form

Sequence for Scotland U21: W W L D, so two victories in four. Latest: 2–0 away at Bulgaria U21. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.

Ukraine U21, last six: D W D L W D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Albania U21. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Scotland U21 1.58 · Ukraine U21 1.63 · total 3.21. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 61%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Ukraine U21 or draw, probability 77%, odds 1.39 v fair 1.30. Most probable score: Scotland U21 1–1 Ukraine U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.