- λ home
- 1.41
- λ away
- 0.52
- Σλ total
- 1.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 36%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 20.4%
Kalaâ Sport vs Jendouba Sport prediction & xG model: Kalaâ Sport to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Kalaâ Sport 61% · draw 24% · Jendouba Sport 15%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Kalaâ Sport v Jendouba Sport: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Kalaâ Sport v Jendouba Sport are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.30 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 1.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.41, λaway = 0.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 20.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kalaâ Sport | – | 69.0% | 48.9% | 60.6% |
| X Draw | – | 21.0% | 28.5% | 24.2% |
| 2 Jendouba Sport | – | 10.0% | 22.5% | 15.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kalaâ Sport pick | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.82 | 54.9% | +10.2% | |
| X · Draw | 24.2% | 4.14 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -24.6% | |
| 2 · Jendouba Sport | 15.3% | 6.55 | 3.95 | 25.3% | -39.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -2.6% | |
| X2 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -31.0% | |
| 12 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kalaâ Sport | 79.9% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Jendouba Sport | 20.1% | 4.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 61.2% | 1.64 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -14.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 38.8% | 2.57 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -0.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -19.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -0.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.5% | 5.71 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -27.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -4.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.03 | 49.3% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -14.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.2% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.0% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.9% | 8.44 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.606 × 1.82 − 1 = +0.102 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.125 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kalaâ Sport | Jendouba Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLW | DWDWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% |
| BTTS | 17% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kalaâ Sport at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Kalaâ Sport 13th on 10, Jendouba Sport 9th on 12.
Form
Kalaâ Sport, last six: W L W L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Redeyef. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Jendouba Sport have three wins from their last six (D W D W W L). Latest: 0–0 at home to Stade Gabesien. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Kalaâ Sport 1–3 Jendouba Sport. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kalaâ Sport 1.41 · Jendouba Sport 0.52 · total 1.94. Low total: under 2.5 64%.
Model selection
Selection: Kalaâ Sport to win, probability 61%, odds 1.82 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Kalaâ Sport 1–0 Jendouba Sport. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 May 2026Kalaâ Sport1–3Jendouba Sport
Ligue 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Kasserine | 7 | +7 | 18 |
| 2 |  EM Mahdia | 7 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Ksour Essef | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 |  M'saken | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  CS Chebba | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |  Bouchamma | 7 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 |  AS Soliman | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 8 |  Korba | 7 | +4 | 12 |
| 9 |  Jendouba Sport | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 |  Mégrine | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  JS Kairouanaise | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 |  US Tataouine | 7 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Kalaâ Sport | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Stade Soussien | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 15 |  Sporting Ben Arous | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Ariana | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 |  Stade Gabesien | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 |  Sfax Railways | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 19 |  EGS Gafsa | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 |  AS Agareb | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 |  Redeyef | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 22 |  Kerkennah | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 23 |  Olympique du Kef | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 24 |  Béni-Khalled | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 25 |  CO Medenine | 7 | -7 | 5 |
| 26 |  BS Bouhajla | 7 | -7 | 5 |
| 27 |  AS Gabes | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 28 |  Moknine | 7 | -9 | 2 |
More Ligue 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kalaâ Sport vs Jendouba Sport?
The Model pick is Kalaâ Sport to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.82 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kalaâ Sport v Jendouba Sport probabilities?
Kalaâ Sport win 61%, draw 24%, Jendouba Sport win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Kalaâ Sport vs Jendouba Sport?
Kalaâ Sport 1–0 Jendouba Sport is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kalaâ Sport vs Jendouba Sport?
Kalaâ Sport 1.41, Jendouba Sport 0.52 – over 2.5 at 36%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Kalaâ Sport vs Jendouba Sport?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Ligue 2.