- λ home
- 1.31
- λ away
- 1.08
- Σλ total
- 2.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 42%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
EGS Gafsa vs Bouchamma prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: EGS Gafsa 44% · draw 23% · Bouchamma 33%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
EGS Gafsa v Bouchamma: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for EGS Gafsa v Bouchamma are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.43 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.36 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.31, λaway = 1.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 EGS Gafsa | – | 44.0% | 44.6% | 44.2% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 29.3% | 22.8% |
| 2 Bouchamma | – | 38.0% | 26.1% | 33.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · EGS Gafsa | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -11.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -30.8% | |
| 2 · Bouchamma | 33.0% | 3.03 | 3.42 | 29.2% | +12.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -18.9% | |
| X2 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -10.2% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB EGS Gafsa | 57.3% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bouchamma | 42.7% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -7.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.3% | 3.10 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -13.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -9.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -11.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -20.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.2% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.0% | 4.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.543 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.037 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.041 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | EGS Gafsa | Bouchamma |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLL | LWDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
EGS Gafsa ahead at 44%, against 33% for Bouchamma and 23% for the draw. Standings: EGS Gafsa 19th on 7, Bouchamma 6th on 13.
Form
Sequence for EGS Gafsa: W L W L L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Ariana. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Bouchamma, last six: L W D W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–3 away at Ksour Essef. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG EGS Gafsa 1.31 · Bouchamma 1.08 · total 2.39. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: EGS Gafsa 2–1 Bouchamma. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Kasserine | 7 | +7 | 18 |
| 2 |  EM Mahdia | 7 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Ksour Essef | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 |  M'saken | 7 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 |  CS Chebba | 7 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |  Bouchamma | 7 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 |  AS Soliman | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 8 |  Korba | 7 | +4 | 12 |
| 9 |  Jendouba Sport | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 |  Mégrine | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  JS Kairouanaise | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 |  US Tataouine | 7 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Kalaâ Sport | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Stade Soussien | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 15 |  Sporting Ben Arous | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Ariana | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 |  Stade Gabesien | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 |  Sfax Railways | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 19 |  EGS Gafsa | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 |  AS Agareb | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 |  Redeyef | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 22 |  Kerkennah | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 23 |  Olympique du Kef | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 24 |  Béni-Khalled | 7 | -4 | 5 |
| 25 |  CO Medenine | 7 | -7 | 5 |
| 26 |  BS Bouhajla | 7 | -7 | 5 |
| 27 |  AS Gabes | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 28 |  Moknine | 7 | -9 | 2 |
More Ligue 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for EGS Gafsa vs Bouchamma?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the EGS Gafsa v Bouchamma probabilities?
EGS Gafsa win 44%, draw 23%, Bouchamma win 33%.
What is the most probable score for EGS Gafsa vs Bouchamma?
EGS Gafsa 2–1 Bouchamma is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for EGS Gafsa vs Bouchamma?
EGS Gafsa 1.31, Bouchamma 1.08 – over 2.5 at 42%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is EGS Gafsa vs Bouchamma?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – Ligue 2.