- λ home
- 1.12
- λ away
- 1.44
- Σλ total
- 2.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
Chile U20 vs Mexico U20 prediction & xG model: Mexico U20 to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Chile U20 34% · draw 17% · Mexico U20 49%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Chile U20 v Mexico U20: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Chile U20 v Mexico U20 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (1 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile U20 (home) | 1.66 | 0.96 | 0.71 | – |
| Mexico U20 (away) | 1.38 | 1.16 | 0.91 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.96 × 0.71 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.25 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.83 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.12, λaway = 1.44
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Chile U20 | – | 37.0% | 29.9% | 34.0% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 25.3% | 17.0% |
| 2 Mexico U20 | – | 52.0% | 44.9% | 49.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Chile U20 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 3.02 | 33.1% | +2.7% | |
| X · Draw | 17.0% | 5.89 | 3.57 | 28.0% | -39.3% | |
| 2 · Mexico U20 pick | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -1.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -17.9% | |
| X2 | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -15.5% | |
| 12 | 83.0% | 1.20 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Chile U20 | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mexico U20 | 59.0% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -14.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | 2.02 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -2.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.5% | 3.51 | 2.93 | 34.1% | -16.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -4.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -17.7% | |
| BTTS no | 48.9% | 2.05 | 2.12 | 47.2% | +3.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.9% | 3.04 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.490 × 2.01 − 1 = -0.015 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Chile U20 | Mexico U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | D | DLLWWW |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% |
| BTTS | 100% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 49% against 34%.
Form
Mexico U20 have three wins from their last six (D L L W W W). Latest: 1–1 away at Chile U20. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Nov 2026): Chile U20 1–1 Mexico U20. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Chile U20 1.12 · Mexico U20 1.44 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Selection: Mexico U20 to win, probability 49%, odds 2.01 v fair 2.04. Most probable score: Chile U20 0–1 Mexico U20. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Nov 2026Chile U201–1Mexico U20
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What is the Winning Arena prediction for Chile U20 vs Mexico U20?
The Model pick is Mexico U20 to win with a model probability of 49, priced around 2.01 by the bookmakers.
What are the Chile U20 v Mexico U20 probabilities?
Chile U20 win 34%, draw 17%, Mexico U20 win 49%.
What is the most probable score for Chile U20 vs Mexico U20?
Chile U20 0–1 Mexico U20 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Chile U20 vs Mexico U20?
Chile U20 1.12, Mexico U20 1.44 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Chile U20 vs Mexico U20?
Monday 16 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Friendlies.