- λ home
- 0.75
- λ away
- 1.23
- Σλ total
- 1.98
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 0–1 17.0%
Andorra vs Azerbaijan prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Andorra 18% · draw 29% · Azerbaijan 53%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Andorra v Azerbaijan: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Andorra v Azerbaijan are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (10 and 8 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra (home) | 1.66 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| Azerbaijan (away) | 1.38 | 0.83 | 0.93 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.69 × 0.69 ≈ 0.80
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.89 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.25 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.98 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.75, λaway = 1.23
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 22.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 47.7%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 17.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Andorra | 26.3% | 5.0% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| X Draw | 33.6% | 25.0% | 26.6% | 28.7% |
| 2 Azerbaijan | 40.1% | 70.0% | 55.0% | 53.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Andorra | 18.0% | 5.55 | 4.91 | 20.4% | -11.5% | |
| X · Draw | 28.7% | 3.49 | 3.39 | 29.5% | -2.8% | |
| 2 · Azerbaijan | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -12.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -7.5% | |
| X2 | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -10.7% | |
| 12 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -13.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Andorra | 25.3% | 3.96 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Azerbaijan | 74.7% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -12.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.66 | 37.6% | +0.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -16.8% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -3.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.0% | 7.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.24 | 44.6% | +4.7% | |
| BTTS no | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -17.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.7% | 5.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.6% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.646 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.031 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Andorra | Azerbaijan |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLDLL | WWDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Azerbaijan narrowly ahead at 53%; Andorra 18%.
Form
Sequence for Andorra: W L L D L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Gibraltar. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Sequence for Azerbaijan: W W D D W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Liechtenstein. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Andorra 0.75 · Azerbaijan 1.23 · total 1.98. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Andorra 0–1 Azerbaijan. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Andorra vs Azerbaijan?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Andorra v Azerbaijan probabilities?
Andorra win 18%, draw 29%, Azerbaijan win 53%.
What is the most probable score for Andorra vs Azerbaijan?
Andorra 0–1 Azerbaijan is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Andorra vs Azerbaijan?
Andorra 0.75, Azerbaijan 1.23 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Andorra vs Azerbaijan?
Monday 16 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadi de la FAF – Friendlies.