- λ home
- 1.00
- λ away
- 0.99
- Σλ total
- 1.98
- P(over 2.5)
- 34%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 0–0 13.8%
Villa Dalmine vs Deportivo Camioneros prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Villa Dalmine v Deportivo Camioneros: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Villa Dalmine v Deportivo Camioneros are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa Dalmine (home) | 1.66 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.87 |
| Deportivo Camioneros (away) | 1.38 | 1.02 | 0.72 | 1.02 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.63 × 0.83 ≈ 0.87
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.89 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.82 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.12 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.98 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.00, λaway = 0.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 31.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.2%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 13.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Villa Dalmine | 29.5% | 39.0% | 36.5% | 37.9% |
| X Draw | 33.6% | 19.0% | 32.5% | 24.7% |
| 2 Deportivo Camioneros | 37.0% | 42.0% | 31.0% | 37.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Villa Dalmine | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -7.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -32.2% | |
| 2 · Deportivo Camioneros | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.88 | 34.7% | +7.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -16.7% | |
| X2 | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -10.6% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Villa Dalmine | 50.4% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Deportivo Camioneros | 49.6% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -8.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -4.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33.6% | 2.97 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -11.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -4.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.3% | 6.15 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -18.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.7% | 1.19 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.6% | 1.97 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +11.4% | |
| BTTS no | 49.4% | 2.03 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -20.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.1% | 3.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.2% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.8% | 4.04 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.506 × 2.20 − 1 = +0.114 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.095 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Villa Dalmine | Deportivo Camioneros |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDLD | WLWDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 25 / 37% for home, draw, away. Standings: Villa Dalmine 6th on 68, Deportivo Camioneros 5th on 70.
Form
Villa Dalmine have one win from their last six (L W L D L D). Latest: 0–1 away at Sportivo Italiano. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Deportivo Camioneros have two wins from their last six (W L W D L L). Latest: 2–1 at home to Excursionistas. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Villa Dalmine 0–1 Deportivo Camioneros. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Villa Dalmine 1.00 · Deportivo Camioneros 0.99 · total 1.98. Low total: under 2.5 66%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.20 v fair 1.97. Most probable score: Villa Dalmine 2–1 Deportivo Camioneros. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 Jun 2026Villa Dalmine0–1Deportivo Camioneros
Primera B Metropolitana table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 42 | +36 | 81 |
| 2 |  Arsenal Sarandi | 42 | +28 | 77 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Italiano | 42 | +15 | 72 |
| 4 |  Talleres Remedios | 42 | +19 | 71 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Camioneros | 42 | +15 | 70 |
| 6 |  Villa Dalmine | 42 | +12 | 68 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 42 | +4 | 66 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 42 | +3 | 63 |
| 9 |  Comunicaciones | 42 | +5 | 60 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 42 | -2 | 59 |
| 11 |  Villa San Carlos | 42 | -5 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Martín Burzaco | 42 | -6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Argentino de Merlo | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 14 |  Flandria | 42 | -10 | 49 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Merlo | 42 | -15 | 49 |
| 16 |  Liniers | 42 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |  Argentino Quilmes | 42 | -8 | 47 |
| 18 |  Dock Sud | 42 | -9 | 47 |
| 19 |  Defensores Unidos | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 20 |  Brown DE Adrogue | 42 | -12 | 46 |
| 21 |  UAI Urquiza | 42 | -10 | 45 |
| 22 |  Ituzaingó | 42 | -41 | 17 |
More Primera B Metropolitana predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Villa Dalmine vs Deportivo Camioneros?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Villa Dalmine v Deportivo Camioneros probabilities?
Villa Dalmine win 38%, draw 25%, Deportivo Camioneros win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Villa Dalmine vs Deportivo Camioneros?
Villa Dalmine 2–1 Deportivo Camioneros is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Villa Dalmine vs Deportivo Camioneros?
Villa Dalmine 1.00, Deportivo Camioneros 0.99 – over 2.5 at 34%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Villa Dalmine vs Deportivo Camioneros?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 19:30 WAT, at Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini – Primera B Metropolitana.