- λ home
- 1.06
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.01
- P(over 2.5)
- 33%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.3%
Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Deportivo Armenio v Sportivo Italiano: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Deportivo Armenio v Sportivo Italiano are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 36 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Armenio (home) | 1.66 | 0.83 | 0.72 | 0.99 |
| Sportivo Italiano (away) | 1.38 | 0.90 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.83 × 0.72 ≈ 0.99
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.74 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.95 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.05 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.01 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.06, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Armenio | 39.0% | 44.0% | 36.4% | 40.8% |
| X Draw | 35.0% | 19.0% | 31.8% | 24.4% |
| 2 Sportivo Italiano | 26.0% | 37.0% | 31.8% | 34.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Armenio | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -0.1% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.10 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -31.7% | |
| 2 · Sportivo Italiano | 34.8% | 2.87 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -2.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -13.3% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -14.7% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +0.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Armenio | 53.9% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sportivo Italiano | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 41.4% | 2.41 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -8.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33.1% | 3.02 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -9.0% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 66.9% | 1.49 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -6.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 15.7% | 6.39 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -13.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 84.3% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -18.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.9% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.3% | 4.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.669 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Armenio | Sportivo Italiano |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDDWW | WLDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Deportivo Armenio 41%, draw 24%, Sportivo Italiano 35%. Standings: Deportivo Armenio 8th on 63, Sportivo Italiano 3rd on 72.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo Armenio: D L D D W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Flandria. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sportivo Italiano, last six: W L D W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Villa Dalmine. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Deportivo Armenio 1–0 Sportivo Italiano. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Armenio 1.06 · Sportivo Italiano 0.95 · total 2.01. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Deportivo Armenio 1–0 Sportivo Italiano. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Sep 2026Deportivo Armenio1–0Sportivo Italiano
Primera B Metropolitana table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 42 | +36 | 81 |
| 2 |  Arsenal Sarandi | 42 | +28 | 77 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Italiano | 42 | +15 | 72 |
| 4 |  Talleres Remedios | 42 | +19 | 71 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Camioneros | 42 | +15 | 70 |
| 6 |  Villa Dalmine | 42 | +12 | 68 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 42 | +4 | 66 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 42 | +3 | 63 |
| 9 |  Comunicaciones | 42 | +5 | 60 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 42 | -2 | 59 |
| 11 |  Villa San Carlos | 42 | -5 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Martín Burzaco | 42 | -6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Argentino de Merlo | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 14 |  Flandria | 42 | -10 | 49 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Merlo | 42 | -15 | 49 |
| 16 |  Liniers | 42 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |  Argentino Quilmes | 42 | -8 | 47 |
| 18 |  Dock Sud | 42 | -9 | 47 |
| 19 |  Defensores Unidos | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 20 |  Brown DE Adrogue | 42 | -12 | 46 |
| 21 |  UAI Urquiza | 42 | -10 | 45 |
| 22 |  Ituzaingó | 42 | -41 | 17 |
More Primera B Metropolitana predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Armenio v Sportivo Italiano probabilities?
Deportivo Armenio win 41%, draw 24%, Sportivo Italiano win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano?
Deportivo Armenio 1–0 Sportivo Italiano is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano?
Deportivo Armenio 1.06, Sportivo Italiano 0.95 – over 2.5 at 33%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Deportivo Armenio vs Sportivo Italiano?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 19:30 WAT, at Armenia Stadium – Primera B Metropolitana.