- λ home
- 2.21
- λ away
- 2.26
- Σλ total
- 4.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 79%
- P(BTTS)
- 74%
- Modal score
- 2–2 7.1%
Comercial PA U20 vs Tapajos U20 prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Comercial PA U20 v Tapajos U20: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Comercial PA U20 v Tapajos U20 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 5.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.03 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 4.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.21, λaway = 2.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–2 · 7.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Comercial PA U20 | – | 45.0% | 32.6% | 39.8% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 22.8% | 18.9% |
| 2 Tapajos U20 | – | 39.0% | 44.6% | 41.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Comercial PA U20 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +11.4% | |
| X · Draw | 18.9% | 5.30 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -24.5% | |
| 2 · Tapajos U20 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -15.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.0% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -18.1% | |
| 12 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Comercial PA U20 | 49.1% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tapajos U20 | 50.9% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 93.7% | 1.07 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 6.3% | 15.98 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 20.5% | 4.87 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -17.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 34.7% | 2.88 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -9.2% | |
| BTTS no | 25.6% | 3.91 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -8.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.9% | 2.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.2% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.9% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.795 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.030 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 1 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Comercial PA U20 | Tapajos U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | L | |
| Matches | 1 | – |
| W-D-L | 0-0-1 | – |
| Points per match | 0.00 | – |
| Goals for / match | 0.00 | – |
| Goals against / match | 10.00 | – |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | – |
| BTTS | 0% | – |
| Clean sheets | 0% | – |
| Failed to score | 100% | – |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 19 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Comercial PA U20 17th on 4, Tapajos U20 10th on 6.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Comercial PA U20 2.21 · Tapajos U20 2.26 · total 4.47. High total: over 2.5 79%, BTTS 74%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 79%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.26. Most probable score: Comercial PA U20 1–2 Tapajos U20. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Paraense U20 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tuna Luso PA U20 | 4 | +25 | 12 |
| 2 |  Remo U20 | 3 | +25 | 9 |
| 3 |  ESMAC U20 | 4 | +14 | 9 |
| 4 |  Tesla U20 | 3 | +12 | 9 |
| 5 |  Castanhal U20 | 4 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 |  Tiradentes PA U20 | 3 | +7 | 7 |
| 7 |  Pedreira U20 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Capitão Poço U20 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 |  Belenense U20 | 4 | +11 | 6 |
| 10 |  Tapajos U20 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 11 |  Independente U20 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 |  Desportiva Paraense U20 | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 |  Craques do Futuro U20 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 14 |  EC Tailandia U20 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 15 |  Águia de Marabá U20 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Venus U20 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 |  Comercial PA U20 | 3 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Trabalhista U20 | 2 | +5 | 3 |
| 19 |  Ponte Nova U20 | 2 | +4 | 3 |
| 20 |  Mec Maraba U20 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 |  Sao Miguel U20 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 22 |  Estrela PA U20 | 3 | -14 | 3 |
| 23 |  Meninos de Ouro U20 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Pinheirense U20 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 25 |  Paragominas U20 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 26 |  Paysandu PA U20 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 |  Vila Rica SC U20 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 28 |  Sao Francisco U20 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 |  Sport Belem U20 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 30 |  CRT-23 Benevides U20 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 31 |  Boca Juniors U20 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 32 |  Cabanos U20 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| 33 |  Curumins U20 | 2 | -11 | 0 |
| 34 |  Atletico JM9 U20 | 4 | -28 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Comercial PA U20 vs Tapajos U20?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Comercial PA U20 v Tapajos U20 probabilities?
Comercial PA U20 win 40%, draw 19%, Tapajos U20 win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Comercial PA U20 vs Tapajos U20?
Comercial PA U20 1–2 Tapajos U20 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Comercial PA U20 vs Tapajos U20?
Comercial PA U20 2.21, Tapajos U20 2.26 – over 2.5 at 79%, BTTS at 74%.
What time is Comercial PA U20 vs Tapajos U20?
Friday 13 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – Paraense U20.