Copa Colombia Wed 11 Nov 2026 · Estadio Palogrande Full time

Once Caldas

DDWWW

1–1

Half-time 1–0

Atletico Nacional

WWWDW

36%P(1)24%P(X)40%P(2)

λ home: 1.22
λ away: 1.32
Σλ total: 2.54
P(over 2.5): 46%
P(BTTS): 59%
Modal score: 1–1 12.7%

Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Once Caldas v Atletico Nacional: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Once Caldas v Atletico Nacional are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Once Caldas (home)	1.51	1.14	0.77	1.32
Atletico Nacional (away)	1.40	1.29	0.62	1.12

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.51 × 1.14 × 0.77 ≈ 1.32

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.43	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.63	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.46	30%
Blended total λ	2.54	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.22, λ_away = 1.32

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Once Caldas λ = 1.22

029.5%

136.0%

222.0%

38.9%

42.7%

5+0.8%

Atletico Nacional λ = 1.32

026.8%

135.3%

223.2%

310.2%

43.4%

5+1.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Onc \ Atl012345+

07.9106.83.01.0·

19.7138.43.71.2·

25.97.85.12.20.7·

32.43.22.10.9··

40.71.00.6···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 34.4%
Σ draw cells: 26.7%
Σ away-win cells: 38.9%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 12.7%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Once Caldas	40.5%	34.0%	37.7%	35.6%
X Draw	28.6%	19.0%	31.8%	24.4%
2 Atletico Nacional	30.9%	47.0%	30.5%	40.1%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Once Caldas	35.6%	2.81	2.44	41.0%	-13.2%
X · Draw	24.4%	4.11	2.90	34.5%	-29.4%
2 · Atletico Nacional	40.1%	2.50	3.02	33.1%	+21.0%
Double chance
1X	59.9%	1.67	1.33	75.2%	-20.3%
X2	64.4%	1.55	1.48	67.6%	-4.6%
12	75.6%	1.32	1.35	74.1%	+2.1%
Draw no bet
DNB Once Caldas	47.0%	2.13	–	–	–
DNB Atletico Nacional	53.0%	1.89	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	70.5%	1.42	1.31	76.3%	-7.6%
Under 1.5	29.5%	3.39	2.92	34.2%	-13.9%
Over 2.5	45.6%	2.19	2.09	47.8%	-4.8%
Under 2.5	54.4%	1.84	1.68	59.5%	-8.5%
Over 3.5	25.1%	3.98	3.58	27.9%	-10.0%
Under 3.5	74.9%	1.34	1.21	82.6%	-9.4%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	59.3%	1.69	1.79	55.9%	+6.2%
BTTS no	40.7%	2.46	1.89	52.9%	-23.1%
Half-time
HT 1	26.8%	3.74	–	–	–
HT X	43.8%	2.29	–	–	–
HT 2	29.5%	3.39	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability59.3%

Fair odds1.69

Best odds1.79

EV per unit+6.2%

EV = 0.593 × 1.79 − 1 = +0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.078 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Once Caldas	Atletico Nacional
Sequence	WWWDDW	WDWWWL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	4-2-0	4-1-1
Points per match	2.33	2.17
Goals for / match	1.33	2.00
Goals against / match	0.33	1.00
Over 2.5	0%	50%
BTTS	33%	50%
Clean sheets	67%	33%
Failed to score	0%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

No clear favourite in the grid – Once Caldas 36%, draw 24%, Atletico Nacional 40%.

Form

Once Caldas, last six: W W W D D W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Águilas Doradas. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.

Atletico Nacional, last six: W D W W W L – four wins in total. Latest: 4–3 at home to Deportivo Pereira. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.

Head to head

Last meeting (May 2026): Once Caldas 1–0 Atletico Nacional. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Once Caldas 1.22 · Atletico Nacional 1.32 · total 2.54. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 59%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.79 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Once Caldas 1–2 Atletico Nacional. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.