- λ home
- 1.30
- λ away
- 1.50
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Internacional de Bogota vs America de Cali prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Internacional de Bogota v America de Cali: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Internacional de Bogota v America de Cali are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional de Bogota (home) | 1.51 | 1.24 | 0.76 | 1.42 |
| America de Cali (away) | 1.40 | 1.42 | 0.87 | 1.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 1.24 × 0.76 ≈ 1.42
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.16 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.30, λaway = 1.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Internacional de Bogota | 31.0% | 35.0% | 32.4% | 33.9% |
| X Draw | 24.3% | 18.0% | 30.3% | 23.2% |
| 2 America de Cali | 44.8% | 47.0% | 37.3% | 42.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Internacional de Bogota | 33.9% | 2.95 | 2.84 | 35.2% | -3.7% | |
| X · Draw | 23.2% | 4.32 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -29.6% | |
| 2 · America de Cali | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.47 | 40.5% | +6.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -16.1% | |
| X2 | 66.1% | 1.51 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -9.5% | |
| 12 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Internacional de Bogota | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB America de Cali | 55.9% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -3.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.5% | 3.64 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -22.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 2.12 | 47.2% | +2.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -14.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.68 | 27.2% | +2.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.2% | 1.38 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -13.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -12.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.6% | 3.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.1% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.526 × 1.83 − 1 = -0.037 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Internacional de Bogota | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWWD | DDWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 43% against 34%.
Form
Internacional de Bogota have three wins from their last six (L W L W W D). Latest: 1–2 away at Chico. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
America de Cali have three wins from their last six (D D W W W D). Latest: 0–0 at home to Deportivo Cali. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Internacional de Bogota 0–2 America de Cali. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Internacional de Bogota 1.30 · America de Cali 1.50 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.90. Most probable score: Internacional de Bogota 1–2 America de Cali. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026Internacional de Bogota0–2America de Cali
More Copa Colombia predictions
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Once Caldas1
Atletico Nacional1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Internacional de Bogota vs America de Cali?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Internacional de Bogota v America de Cali probabilities?
Internacional de Bogota win 34%, draw 23%, America de Cali win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Internacional de Bogota vs America de Cali?
Internacional de Bogota 1–2 America de Cali is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Internacional de Bogota vs America de Cali?
Internacional de Bogota 1.30, America de Cali 1.50 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Internacional de Bogota vs America de Cali?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo – Copa Colombia.