- λ home
- 1.45
- λ away
- 1.38
- Σλ total
- 2.83
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Santa Ana vs AD Sarchí prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Santa Ana 41% · draw 21% · AD Sarchí 38%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Santa Ana v AD Sarchí: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Santa Ana v AD Sarchí are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.86 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.80 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.83 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.45, λaway = 1.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Santa Ana | – | 40.0% | 42.8% | 41.2% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.0% | 20.8% |
| 2 AD Sarchí | – | 43.0% | 31.1% | 38.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Santa Ana | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -14.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -28.9% | |
| 2 · AD Sarchí | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.86 | 35.0% | +8.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -19.4% | |
| X2 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -7.7% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Santa Ana | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB AD Sarchí | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.3% | 4.29 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -11.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -7.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -9.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.7% | 3.16 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -10.4% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -9.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -5.0% | |
| BTTS no | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.11 | 47.4% | -14.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.5% | 3.51 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.683 × 1.33 − 1 = -0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Santa Ana | AD Sarchí |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWWWL | WWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 21 / 38% for home, draw, away. Standings: Santa Ana 3rd on 27, AD Sarchí 8th on 20.
Form
Sequence for Santa Ana: L L W W W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Guadalupe FC. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.
AD Sarchí have four wins from their last six (W W W L L W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Santa Cruz FC. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Santa Ana 1.45 · AD Sarchí 1.38 · total 2.83. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.33 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Santa Ana 1–0 AD Sarchí. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga De Ascenso table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rosario | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 2 |  ADR Jicaral | 12 | +14 | 27 |
| 3 |  Santa Ana | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 |  Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 14 | +1 | 23 |
| 5 |  Cariari Pococi | 14 | +4 | 22 |
| 6 |  Municipal Grecia | 12 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Guadalupe FC | 14 | -1 | 21 |
| 8 |  AD Sarchí | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Futbol Consultants Moravia | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Quepos Cambute | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 11 |  AD Carmelita | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 |  CS Uruguay | 14 | -18 | 9 |
| 13 |  AD Cofutpa | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 14 |  Santa Cruz FC | 12 | -13 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Santa Ana vs AD Sarchí?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.33 by the bookmakers.
What are the Santa Ana v AD Sarchí probabilities?
Santa Ana win 41%, draw 21%, AD Sarchí win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Santa Ana vs AD Sarchí?
Santa Ana 1–0 AD Sarchí is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Santa Ana vs AD Sarchí?
Santa Ana 1.45, AD Sarchí 1.38 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Santa Ana vs AD Sarchí?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Liga De Ascenso.