- λ home
- 0.78
- λ away
- 2.38
- Σλ total
- 3.16
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–2 12.0%
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF prediction & xG model: La Roche VF to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
St-Philbert Gd Lieu v La Roche VF: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipLa Roche VF to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
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How the numbers for St-Philbert Gd Lieu v La Roche VF are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.16 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.16 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.78, λaway = 2.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 10.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 73.0%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 St-Philbert Gd Lieu | – | 7.0% | 13.0% | 9.5% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 18.8% | 18.3% |
| 2 La Roche VF | – | 75.0% | 68.2% | 72.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · St-Philbert Gd Lieu | 9.5% | 10.52 | 7.10 | 14.1% | -32.5% | |
| X · Draw | 18.3% | 5.45 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -10.2% | |
| 2 · La Roche VF pick | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -2.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 27.8% | 3.59 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -19.3% | |
| X2 | 90.5% | 1.11 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -4.1% | |
| 12 | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB St-Philbert Gd Lieu | 11.6% | 8.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB La Roche VF | 88.4% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -9.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 5.54 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -11.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.64 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -9.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | 2.57 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -9.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -8.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -6.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -5.8% | |
| BTTS no | 45.6% | 2.19 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -10.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 12.0% | 8.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.7% | 2.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 53.3% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.722 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | La Roche VF |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | |
| Matches | – | 6 |
| W-D-L | – | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | – | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | – | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | – | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | – | 67% |
| BTTS | – | 67% |
| Clean sheets | – | 33% |
| Failed to score | – | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: La Roche VF 72%, St-Philbert Gd Lieu 10%.
Form
La Roche VF have five wins from their last six (W W L W W W). Latest: 1–0 away at Gobelins. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG St-Philbert Gd Lieu 0.78 · La Roche VF 2.38 · total 3.16. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: La Roche VF to win, probability 72%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.39. Most probable score: St-Philbert Gd Lieu 0–2 La Roche VF. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Dijon1
Orleans2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF?
The Model pick is La Roche VF to win with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the St-Philbert Gd Lieu v La Roche VF probabilities?
St-Philbert Gd Lieu win 10%, draw 18%, La Roche VF win 72%.
What is the most probable score for St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF?
St-Philbert Gd Lieu 0–2 La Roche VF is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF?
St-Philbert Gd Lieu 0.78, La Roche VF 2.38 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Coupe De France.