- λ home
- 1.62
- λ away
- 0.62
- Σλ total
- 2.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 17.2%
Basque Country vs Venezuela prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Basque Country v Venezuela: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Basque Country v Venezuela are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (1 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basque Country (home) | 1.66 | 0.96 | 0.73 | – |
| Venezuela (away) | 1.38 | 0.75 | 0.85 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.96 × 0.73 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.60 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.78 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.62, λaway = 0.62
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 17.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Basque Country | – | 67.0% | 60.1% | 64.1% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 24.1% | 19.4% |
| 2 Venezuela | – | 17.0% | 15.8% | 16.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.088 → 8.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Basque Country | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -1.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.16 | 3.82 | 26.2% | -25.9% | |
| 2 · Venezuela | 16.5% | 6.05 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -4.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.5% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.2% | |
| X2 | 35.9% | 2.79 | 2.31 | 43.3% | -17.1% | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -1.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Basque Country | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Venezuela | 20.5% | 4.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -15.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.35 | 3.58 | 27.9% | +6.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -18.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 54.2% | 1.85 | 1.97 | 50.8% | +6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.7% | 3.88 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -28.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -0.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -12.2% | |
| BTTS no | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -3.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.9% | 7.75 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.542 × 1.97 − 1 = +0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.070 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Basque Country | Venezuela |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLWLW | |
| Matches | – | 6 |
| W-D-L | – | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | – | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | – | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | – | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | – | 50% |
| BTTS | – | 50% |
| Clean sheets | – | 50% |
| Failed to score | – | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Basque Country 64% to win.
Form
Venezuela, last six: D D L W L W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Jordan. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Basque Country 1.62 · Venezuela 0.62 · total 2.25. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.97 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Basque Country 1–0 Venezuela. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Brazil2Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Basque Country vs Venezuela?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.97 by the bookmakers.
What are the Basque Country v Venezuela probabilities?
Basque Country win 64%, draw 19%, Venezuela win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Basque Country vs Venezuela?
Basque Country 1–0 Venezuela is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Basque Country vs Venezuela?
Basque Country 1.62, Venezuela 0.62 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Basque Country vs Venezuela?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Friendlies.