- λ home
- 1.86
- λ away
- 0.85
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.4%
Peru vs Bolivia prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Peru v Bolivia: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Peru v Bolivia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.93 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.86, λaway = 0.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Peru | – | 61.0% | 58.8% | 60.1% |
| X Draw | – | 25.0% | 23.7% | 24.4% |
| 2 Bolivia | – | 14.0% | 17.6% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.084 → 8.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Peru | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.7% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.09 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -4.7% | |
| 2 · Bolivia | 15.5% | 6.45 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -18.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.4% | |
| X2 | 39.9% | 2.50 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -4.9% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -9.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Peru | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bolivia | 20.5% | 4.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -2.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -12.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -0.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.8% | 3.72 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +0.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.5% | 1.87 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +17.8% | |
| BTTS no | 46.5% | 2.15 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -24.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.4% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.8% | 6.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.535 × 2.20 − 1 = +0.178 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.148 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Peru | Bolivia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLDLL | LLLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Peru 60% to win.
Form
Peru, last six: W L L D L L – one win in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Bolivia. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for Bolivia: L L L L L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–4 away at Argentina. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Peru 1.86 · Bolivia 0.85 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 2.20 v fair 1.87. Most probable score: Peru 2–1 Bolivia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Malaysia0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Peru vs Bolivia?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Peru v Bolivia probabilities?
Peru win 60%, draw 24%, Bolivia win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Peru vs Bolivia?
Peru 2–1 Bolivia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Peru vs Bolivia?
Peru 1.86, Bolivia 0.85 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Peru vs Bolivia?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 02:00 WAT, at Estadio Monumental – Friendlies.