- λ home
- 1.31
- λ away
- 1.12
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Quindio vs Real Cartagena prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Quindio 42% · draw 26% · Real Cartagena 32%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Quindio v Real Cartagena: who are you backing?
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- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Quindio v Real Cartagena are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (32 and 36 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quindio (home) | 1.16 | 1.04 | 1.12 | 1.35 |
| Real Cartagena (away) | 0.97 | 1.43 | 0.84 | 1.17 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.16 × 1.04 × 1.12 ≈ 1.35
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.52 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.41 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.31, λaway = 1.12
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Quindio | 40.3% | 44.0% | 41.2% | 41.5% |
| X Draw | 28.1% | 18.0% | 29.4% | 26.3% |
| 2 Real Cartagena | 31.6% | 38.0% | 29.4% | 32.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Quindio | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -9.8% | |
| X · Draw | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -20.0% | |
| 2 · Real Cartagena | 32.2% | 3.11 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -2.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -13.8% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -10.6% | |
| 12 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Quindio | 56.4% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Cartagena | 43.6% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.4% | 3.19 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -12.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -7.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.4% | 4.27 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -12.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -11.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.3% | 3.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.9% | 4.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.512 × 1.85 − 1 = -0.053 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Quindio | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWWW | DWLDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Quindio 42%, draw 26%, Real Cartagena 32%. Standings: Quindio 1st on 9, Real Cartagena 3rd on 5.
Form
Sequence for Quindio: W L W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Tigres FC. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Real Cartagena have two wins from their last six (D W L D D W). Latest: 2–2 away at Real Cundinamarca. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 3: Quindio 1, Real Cartagena 1, drawn 1, 3.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Real Cartagena 2–3 Quindio. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Quindio 1.31 · Real Cartagena 1.12 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.95. Most probable score: Quindio 2–1 Real Cartagena. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 4 Nov 2026Real Cartagena2–3Quindio
- 16 Oct 2026Quindio1–1Real Cartagena
- 1 Apr 2026Real Cartagena2–1Quindio
Primera B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quindio | 40 | +14 | 73 |
| 2 |  Envigado | 42 | +21 | 71 |
| 3 |  Real Cartagena | 42 | +17 | 66 |
| 4 |  Union Magdalena | 40 | +16 | 65 |
| 5 |  Internacional Palmira | 36 | +10 | 61 |
| 6 |  Tigres FC | 40 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Ind. Yumbo | 34 | +6 | 49 |
| 8 |  Bogota FC | 36 | -6 | 44 |
| 9 |  Real Cundinamarca | 34 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Popayan | 34 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 |  Barranquilla | 36 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 |  Patriotas | 30 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 |  Orsomarso | 30 | -7 | 34 |
| 14 |  Depor FC | 30 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 |  Real Santander | 30 | -17 | 27 |
| 16 |  Leones FC | 30 | -26 | 24 |
More Primera B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Quindio vs Real Cartagena?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Quindio v Real Cartagena probabilities?
Quindio win 42%, draw 26%, Real Cartagena win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Quindio vs Real Cartagena?
Quindio 2–1 Real Cartagena is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Quindio vs Real Cartagena?
Quindio 1.31, Real Cartagena 1.12 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Quindio vs Real Cartagena?
Monday 16 November 2026, 02:10 WAT, at Estadio Centenario – Primera B.