- λ home
- 1.08
- λ away
- 0.97
- Σλ total
- 2.05
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 44%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.9%
Tigres FC vs Real Cundinamarca prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Tigres FC v Real Cundinamarca: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Tigres FC v Real Cundinamarca are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.89 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.18 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.05 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.08, λaway = 0.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tigres FC | – | 44.0% | 42.0% | 43.2% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 30.4% | 19.2% |
| 2 Real Cundinamarca | – | 45.0% | 27.6% | 37.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tigres FC | 43.2% | 2.32 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 19.2% | 5.22 | 2.94 | 34.0% | -43.7% | |
| 2 · Real Cundinamarca | 37.7% | 2.65 | 3.24 | 30.9% | +22.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -22.7% | |
| X2 | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -11.9% | |
| 12 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +4.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tigres FC | 53.4% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Cundinamarca | 46.6% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -11.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 38.2% | 2.61 | 2.43 | 41.2% | -7.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -12.8% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -5.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.9% | 5.92 | 4.85 | 20.6% | -18.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -9.5% | |
| BTTS no | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -7.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.0% | 3.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.2% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.8% | 4.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.645 × 1.46 − 1 = -0.058 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tigres FC | Real Cundinamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDDLD | DLDLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 17% |
| BTTS | 0% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 83% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Tigres FC 43%, draw 19%, Real Cundinamarca 38%. Standings: Tigres FC 2nd on 5, Real Cundinamarca 4th on 2.
Form
Sequence for Tigres FC: L W D D L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Quindio. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Real Cundinamarca: D L D L W D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Real Cartagena. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Tigres FC 0, Real Cundinamarca 0, drawn 2, 0.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Tigres FC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tigres FC 1.08 · Real Cundinamarca 0.97 · total 2.05. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.46 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Tigres FC 1–0 Real Cundinamarca. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Nov 2026Real Cundinamarca0–0Tigres FC
- 20 Oct 2026Tigres FC0–0Real Cundinamarca
Primera B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quindio | 40 | +14 | 73 |
| 2 |  Envigado | 42 | +21 | 71 |
| 3 |  Real Cartagena | 42 | +17 | 66 |
| 4 |  Union Magdalena | 40 | +16 | 65 |
| 5 |  Internacional Palmira | 36 | +10 | 61 |
| 6 |  Tigres FC | 40 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Ind. Yumbo | 34 | +6 | 49 |
| 8 |  Bogota FC | 36 | -6 | 44 |
| 9 |  Real Cundinamarca | 34 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Popayan | 34 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 |  Barranquilla | 36 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 |  Patriotas | 30 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 |  Orsomarso | 30 | -7 | 34 |
| 14 |  Depor FC | 30 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 |  Real Santander | 30 | -17 | 27 |
| 16 |  Leones FC | 30 | -26 | 24 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tigres FC vs Real Cundinamarca?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.46 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tigres FC v Real Cundinamarca probabilities?
Tigres FC win 43%, draw 19%, Real Cundinamarca win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Tigres FC vs Real Cundinamarca?
Tigres FC 1–0 Real Cundinamarca is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tigres FC vs Real Cundinamarca?
Tigres FC 1.08, Real Cundinamarca 0.97 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 44%.
What time is Tigres FC vs Real Cundinamarca?
Monday 16 November 2026, 00:05 WAT, at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo – Primera B.